Volatility 101: Should Lum Chang Holdings (SGX:L19) Shares Have Dropped 15%?

Simply Wall St

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. A talented investor can beat the market with a diversified portfolio, but even then, some stocks will under-perform. While the Lum Chang Holdings Limited (SGX:L19) share price is down 15% over half a decade, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was 8.1%. And that total return actually beats the market return of -20%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 14% in the last three months. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 27% in the same period.

See our latest analysis for Lum Chang Holdings

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

While the share price declined over five years, Lum Chang Holdings actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 8.8% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

Generally speaking we'd expect to see stronger share price increases on the back of sustained EPS growth, but other metrics may hold a clue to why the share price performance is relatively modest.

The most recent dividend was actually lower than it was in the past, so that may have sent the share price lower. On top of that, revenue has declined by 4.7% per year over the half decade; that could be a red flag for some investors.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

SGX:L19 Income Statement April 7th 2020

This free interactive report on Lum Chang Holdings's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Lum Chang Holdings, it has a TSR of 8.1% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that Lum Chang Holdings returned a loss of 5.2% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 26%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 1.6% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for Lum Chang Holdings (2 are a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SG exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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