US needs to treat Iran as equal in terror fight
slamic State has penetrated deep into Syria and extended its territorial holdings. Its previous retreat from Tikrit in Iraq a few weeks before has neither dented its aggression nor signalled a game change as US Secretary of State John Kerry had trumpeted.
Unless IS’ march into Syria is reversed, which is highly unlikely given the hitherto half-hearted and ineffectual air strikes by the US and allies, it will carve out a large chunk of that country, massacre the Shi’ite population and destroy the heritage ruins of humanity as they did in Iraq.
When that happens it will mark not only the abysmal failure of the West’s strategy to destroy IS but also a new era in the world political order.
One thing is sure and it may not be palatable to the US and its allies. That is, without engaging Iran as an equal partner in the fight against IS to the chagrin of Israel, the Saudis and its Sunni allies, this war, contrary to all predictions, is unwinnable and IS will soon become an inconvenient reality.
IS is certainly not bereft of economic or financial resources and carries the popular support from the oppressed Sunni population of Iraq and Syria. It is also militarily equipped to fight an unconventional war if the US and its allies were to put boots on the ground.
Although the foreign fighters among IS are a tiny minority that helps add an international dimension to IS’ image, it is the local support that sustains its longevity and resilience.
The Saudis and their Arab allies, in spite of their anti-IS posture would in their own self-interest welcome an IS Sunni state encompassing parts of Iraq and Syria, because that will keep IS occupied in ruling a country rather than meddling with and destabilising the domestic politics of others. The recent attack on a Shi’ite mosque in Saudi Arabia demonstrates the instability that IS can create if allowed to remain a stateless cult.
If the Saudi regime is serious about destroying IS, why then is the Saudi air force which has been bombing so ferociously the Yemeni Houthi fighters not doing the same against IS? Why did even Jordan, a Saudi ally that bombed selected IS targets a few times apparently to seek vengeance against IS’ killing of one of Jordan’s pilots, stop the fight since?
Are the Gulf countries and Jordan showing a tolerant face to IS and an intolerant one to US, just as Pakistan did and continues to do between the US and Taliban? Even the US Congress for that matter has expressed its preference for a soft division of Iraq into Sunni, Shi’ite and Kurdish states as a possible solution to the mess US created by invading Iraq in the first place. The US balancing act between Saudi Arabia and Iran may also push towards that possibility.
However, the biggest question is whether the world is prepared to welcome an IS terror state, with its ideology of a medieval sharia-based caliphate, which is ruthlessly intolerant of other religions, cultures and minorities, misogynistic, barbaric and anti-aesthetic. If IS were to be accommodated into the family of nations then how can the world community reject a return of Taliban in Afghanistan and other such groups in North Africa and elsewhere?
This then is the cruel choice. Either the world community welcomes Iran — a resourceful nation with a rich history and culture compared with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries — as an equal partner in the fight against IS and wins the war, or allow IS to become a reality with all unwelcome consequences.
If Iran were to be brought in, all sanctions imposed on that country since 1979 must be removed in return for a negotiated solution to its nuclear program. This will obviously disappoint Saudi Arabia and Israel. These two have already shown their opposition to this option. But isn’t the Saudi regime itself with its brand of Wahhabi sharia a promoter of religious radicalism? Likewise, isn’t Israel’s prolonged recalcitrance towards a peaceful solution to the Palestinian issue part of the reason for the emergence of IS and its cohorts?
If IS were to emerge as a separate Sunni state in the territories it holds now, the subjugated Shi’ites and non-Muslim minorities will have no alternative but to look to Iran for support and Iran will have every resolve to play its role, even with nuclear weapons.
The post-World War II geopolitical status quo in the Middle East and particularly since the last quarter of the 20th century has outlived its use-by date. The world community and the US leadership need to realise this reality and strive to create a new power balance, otherwise the future of world peace and prosperity looks increasingly fragile.
