On the road with Rudd

Time really does fly when you're having fun. It's hard to believe over a week has gone by since I last tapped my thoughts in my campaign diary. Blink again, and the whole show will be over.

The campaign has reached a predictable stage, with the leaders predominantly hugging the east coast of Australia. They're blitzing the areas where the most marginal seats are up for grabs - Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne.

For Kevin Rudd, that means campaigning in his own electorate as well. Both public events on Wednesday were in his seat of Griffith. He has little choice. Two opinion polls conducted in the past week show that he is on track to become only the third Prime Minister to be turfed out of Parliament on polling day.

Overall, Labor appears to have stemmed the electoral bleeding. Most of the major national polls show the party's primary vote has stabilised, or improved. Rudd's personal ratings are no longer sliding as fast as they were. For the time being, the Government is not heading towards annihilation. But it's still heading towards a big defeat.

The negative ads have played a part in getting Labor back on track. But more importantly, Rudd has lifted his game. His shrill claims about the Coalition hiking the GST have given way to a more effective warnings about Tony Abbott's alleged budget cuts, and a relentless critique of his paid parental leave (PPL) scheme.

Liberal strategists claim they don't mind Rudd going on about PPL, because they get an opportunity to highlight how their scheme makes new mums better off. But there is little doubt the policy is becoming an albatross around Abbott's neck. A 7News/Reachtel poll this week showed 52% of women oppose the Coalition's scheme. Putting more money in voters' pockets is supposed to buy support. But this scheme appears to be flawed both economically AND politically.

Simply attacking Abbott won't enough for Labor to pull off a miraculous victory, and Rudd knows it. That's why we saw his left-field announcement of a plan to shift a navy base from Sydney to Brisbane. It was a decision dripping with political motivation. The Prime Minister could promise more jobs in the north to shore up marginal seats there and promise a boost for tourism in Sydney.

One of the many obvious problems was that Julia Gillard ruled it out just three months ago because it was too expensive. The Defence Minister was part of that decision and was nowhere to be seen at Tuesday's announcement. Rudd didn't tell the NSW or Queensland Premiers either. This is a plan that will almost certainly sink without a trace.

Having fired the 'negative policy attack ads' and the 'bold visionary game-changer' strategies, Rudd is left with one shot in the locker - going personal. The first glimpse was revealed during an exclusive interview on Today Tonight on Tuesday night, when the PM accused Abbott of lacking the temperament to deal with the unfolding crisis in Syria. Expect to hear a lot more about the Liberal leader's character in coming days. This campaign is about to get very dirty.