Woosha's call on finale
John Worsfold looks at the key factors in today's AFL grand final.
1 Lance Franklin's left foot
Buddy is obviously a crucial part of the game. In last year's grand final inaccuracy cost Fremantle, and it cost Port Adelaide last week. You have to take your opportunities and while Sydney will want Buddy to have a lot of shots on goal, they need him to be accurate as well. They will put him up the field at times when he is not getting the ball, and they've always got the option to put him deep as that main target - they are just so flexible. The Hawks will be trying to make sure his shots come from both a long way out and wide. But they won't be thinking of a number of shots or goals they can limit Buddy to, it will be all focused on how they can limit Sydney's damage as a team. Hawthorn can win if Buddy kicks five and could lose if he kicks one, so they will not be talking about numbers, but more about process. Their focus will be on having the right match-up, probably with Josh Gibson, and giving him support if he gets one-out deep. But if Buddy does sit in the goal square, Brian Lake will probably roll on to him for some of the game. Whatever happens, if Buddy is getting his 15-plus possessions, he'll be either banging it in deep to Kurt Tippett or Sam Reid or getting shots at goal. And that spells danger for the Hawks.
2 Who plays on Tippett?
If the Hawks go with Gibson on Buddy, it will be Lake with Kurt Tippett. Lake is a good player who won the Norm Smith Medal last year against the Dockers, but this will be a different test for him. There will be support coming from his teammates, but I'm tipping he won't be getting loose to be able to drop off as much as he did in the 2013 decider. He won't be able to just roam around as that third-man up, plus-one defender when he took game-winning marks against the Dockers. Lake is very important to Hawthorn because he'll be in a lot of one-on-ones against Tippett and he will be measured directly by Tippett's marks and goals. If Sydney are up and running and moving the ball quickly, Lake will have a very busy day.
3 Then there's Goodes and Reid
The Swans are blessed with forward options. Reid and Adam Goodes are both outstanding athletes who are strong in the air. Goodes has been doing a lot more of his work running hard forward and he's been damaging. He's a dangerous crumber, dangerous around stoppages and can still take a good contested mark even if he's on someone his own size. Reid hasn't had to play a massive role and he's been carrying some injuries, but he's always a threat. If Tippett is going well, they can leave him forward and use Reid a bit more in the ruck, which gives Sydney plenty of options. If I was coaching the Hawks I'd go with Ben Stratton on Goodes and Matt Spangher on Reid.
4 Who will Cunningham tag?
Harry Cunningham has been doing some very good jobs this year and it will be interesting to see whether he gets pitted against Bradley Hill or Isaac Smith - two of Hawthorn's key outside runners. I'd be locking him down on Hill. What a lot of clubs would be looking at against Hawthorn is the fact that if Hill gets the chance to run free he will win a lot of the footy in the back half and get it going forward. He's probably the more likely of the two to get the 25-plus possessions running free, so I think he's the one Sydney will try and target. Smith can be damaging if he's getting some shots at goal, but I think the Swans will back a normal accountable match-up on him. I reckon they will be happy that if Smith goes forward he'll have a pretty good defender on him. Even if he's on a wing he'll be on a Lewis Jetta, Dan Hannebery, Jarrad McVeigh or a Ben McGlynn, so he'll have his work cut out wherever he is.
5 Who plays on Roughead?
Some may say it's a job for Heath Grundy, but I'd go with Ted Richards on Hawks star Jarryd Roughead. He is no stranger to manning the big key forward deep in attack. I think Grundy may go to another tall or the resting ruckmen. But make no mistake, Roughead is massively important to the Hawks. I've watched a couple of their recent games where they've been slow to start and struggling to score and he's been the one who has eventually got them going. He hits the scoreboard not only as a leading target and contested marker, but he's also often their stoppage target at forward 50 stoppages swinging around right or left. Richards has a good record matching up on the big forwards. The Swans know Roughead is a key player, but they certainly won't be thinking Richards will be totally out of his depth and they won't feel like they have to have a third man hovering around every minute of the game to support him.
6 What about Gunston, Breust?
The Hawks also have options galore in attack, with Jack Gunston and Luke Breust talented players who can be match winners. In Hawthorn's first two finals last year, before his brilliant four-goal effort in the grand final, Gunston booted seven goals. This year he's kicked five coming off a knee injury. He hasn't been quite as prolific because Franklin left for Sydney, which leaves him as the No.2 forward instead of No.3, so he is attracting better defenders. Gunston and Breust are deadly because they are such accurate kicks at goal. They take their opportunities when they come and can have a huge impact on a match with only three or four shots on goal. Cyril Rioli is back and Paul Puopolo is always a threat as well, so Sydney will have to be on their game and live up to their standing as the best defensive team in the competition.
7 The Hodge factor
You can only describe Hawthorn captain Luke Hodge's influence on games as massive. He's a real presence both physically and vocally on the field. It looks like he has the licence to make calls for the team at different times, whether it's moving himself to a different position or imposing himself in a different way. There are times coach Alastair Clarkson calls on him to go back, forward or even into the middle for spells, and there are other times when he does it himself. In a real tight match he never looks like he gets fazed or tries too hard to do things. Things just happen for him with a big hit or simply putting his body on the line. You are never surprised when you see a play like Hodge's match-winning smother and tackle against Port Adelaide in last Saturday's preliminary final. I'd have him starting at half-back today with the odd run at half-forward, coming up into the midfield to give someone like Jordan Lewis a chance to get forward more often.
8 The X-factor
It would be easy to choose players like Jetta and Rioli because of the pure magic they can produce. Breust is another who would fit nicely into this category. But I'm going to pick Lewis. He's coming in with a bit of a corkie to his hip, but it appears he's ready to go. He's a goal-kicking midfielder while he's racking up the footy, which can be really important. In a similar vein for Sydney, I'm looking at Jarrad McVeigh. He hasn't had a big finals series yet, but he can get forward for shots at goal and he can also rack up the footy at half-back and run through the midfield. At crucial times when it matters most, he seems to always bob up. And he's very good with his voice and leadership.
9 The venue
Sydney are the best defensive team of the season and they will get numbers back pretty quickly. On the MCG if you go wide it's easier for the opposition to get back in front of the key forwards because it's a short oval. The midfielders and forwards who are running up the ground can get back inside defensive 50 really quickly and then try and create the run going out. Sydney will be quite happy with the wide ground. If Hawthorn want to use wide spaces, like they often do to get the ball out of defence, the Swans will just see it as time to get numbers back. But the Hawks will feel at home. Since August last year they've only lost one of their 17 games at the MCG, and they have won their past 11. Sydney have won four of their past seven at the ground since winning the 2012 grand final, but all three losses have been against the Hawks.
10 Selecting Cyril
There has been plenty of talk about whether Rioli would be recalled. If I was coaching and he'd ticked all the medical boxes, I would have done the same as Hawthorn and slotted him in. To me it has only ever been a question of whether to play him as the substitute or for the whole game. When you're picking a guy as a sub, you're usually looking at bringing him on halfway through the third quarter for impact and playing him for 40 minutes. But you don't always get that chance because someone can get injured in the first minute and we've seen injuries early in recent grand finals. I don't think that's a major concern for Rioli because it's not like he hasn't played or completed a fair bit of solid training. Even if he came on after 10 minutes in the first quarter, the Hawks will be confident they can manage him through the match. By playing him for Box Hill in the VFL grand final last weekend it appears as though they've timed his rehabilitation well. If it's a close game and Rioli comes on as a sub, he could manufacture a couple of goals at a crucial time. Even if he creates only one and there are only a few points in it, it's going to be critical. If he starts the game, no one is going to expect him to dominate for three or four quarters, but if he has a 20-minute patch where he's on fire he could set up some good scoring chances. And let's face it, while he might not have the real match sharpness for a grand final, he's not the 18th best player for the Hawks. This won't be a gamble, it will be a sound decision.
My verdict: Sydney by 11 points
