“He will be a very benign president,” O’Leary opined on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. O’Leary explains a president Biden would inherit a U.S. economy struggling with high levels of unemployment because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Hence, O’Leary believes the former vice president will be forced to move quickly to enact a $2 trillion stimulus plan that boosts economic growth. Biden’s proposed tax increases for corporations and those making more than $400,000 a year would be pushed off, O’Leary reckons.
O’Leary adds, “I think if Biden wins, nothing happens. His hands will be tied and by the time he finishes the next 24 months, he will be halfway through his mandate [to create jobs] and I think think there will be a second one. I don’t dislike him. I don’t care — I am trying to figure out as an investor what the likely outcomes are.” O’Leary says he has enjoyed very favorable business conditions the last four years as the Trump administration cut corporate taxes and reduced costly regulations.
A blue wave
Investors are also still trying to figure out what a Biden presidency would mean to their portfolio. The market, for now, has settled on a blue wave being the best near-term outcome for equities. Not only could it settle down an antsy country, but it may unlock a strong infrastructure investment plan to jumpstart economic growth and corporate profits.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Transportation Index are all hovering near record highs arguably on such optimism. Consumer companies like retailers Target and Walmart continue to trade around records. Ditto industrials — heavy equipment maker Caterpillar has seen its stock surge 25% in the past three months alone, according to Yahoo Finance Premium data.
Goldman Sachs said this week that a blue wave could lead to a hearty $2.5 trillion new stimulus plan.
“We recently analyzed the implications of a fiscal program similar to the Biden campaign proposals and found that the boost to growth from fiscal stimulus would outweigh the negative effects of tax increases, particularly in light of the fact that the increased tax revenue would go to fund new spending,” Goldman economist Jan Hatzius explained.
Join us for All Markets Summit
What’s hot this week from Sozzi:
Watch Yahoo Finance’s live programming on Verizon FIOS channel 604, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Roku, Samsung TV, Pluto TV, and YouTube. Online catch Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, and reddit.