2024 set to break more temperature records: 'Loss of the great Australian summer'

Carefree Aussie summers could be a thing of the past, with a leading climate scientist warning 2024 could again see records broken for the hottest year.

The prediction comes after the European satellite agency Copernicus released data revealing 2023 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures rising close to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial records. Temperatures last year were substantially worse than 2016 which previously held the title as the warmest year.

Dr Simon Bradshaw from the Climate Council explained to Yahoo News Australia the year after an El Niño has developed will usually be the hottest. “So we would expect 2024 to end up hotter than 2023,” he said.

“On top of that, of course, we're also seeing this enormous rate of increase in the background temperature due to climate change, driven by the burning of coal, oil and gas.

“Remarkably the last 10 years have all been amongst the top 10 warmest years globally. So we are seeing a very quick upward march in temperatures. Maybe that we have some years that are still a notch cooler than the previous one. But the direction of travel is very clear.”

Lament over loss of ‘great Australian summer’

As a result of climate change in 2023 most of the world was impacted by extreme weather events. Notable disasters included Maui and Canada being devastated by severe wildfires, Hurricane Otis killing dozens of people in Mexico and causing billions of dollars in damage, and 300 people dying in East Africa after heavy rains.

Looking towards home, Bradshaw believes these frequent natural disasters are leading many to “lament the loss of the great Australian summer”.

“Summer is now met with a lot of anxiety over what may be coming. We are seeing a very real human toll as well as an economic toll that will build with further temperature increases,” he said.

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During 2023, annual average air temperatures were the warmest, or close to the warmest, on record across every continent except for Australia.

But the nation did not avoid the impact of extreme weather, made worse by climate change. Every state and territory has been impacted by bushfires, including most notably the suburbs of Perth and southern Queensland.

Over the summer holiday period, the eastern states were particularly hard hit by flooding and heavy rain. Tragically, at least 10 people, including riverside holiday campers, died in Queensland and Victoria over the Christmas period.

Major General Peter Dunn from the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action said extreme heatwaves are straining the ability of shelters to respond.

“On the most severe days, the sheer number of fires makes it impossible to combat them all, putting first responders at risk,” he said.

Climate records tumble like dominoes in 2023

• 2023 was the warmest calendar year since 1850.

• Copernicus believes it likely the 12-month period, ending in January or February in 2024, will exceed the previous year's 1.5 degrees temperature rise.

• Every month from June to December was hotter than the corresponding month of any previous year since records began.

• December was 1.78 degrees hotter than the 1850-1900 temperature for that month.

Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Samantha Burgess, said the record temperatures are likely higher than any year in the last 100,000. “2023 was an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes,” she said.

Another director at the agency Carlo Buontempo said the broken record highlights the need for economies to decarbonise and prepare for the future. “The extremes we have observed over the last few months provide a dramatic testimony of how far we now are from the climate in which our civilisation developed,” he said.

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