Liberal Leadership Spill: What happens when 'It's on'
It was not long into the afternoon when Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull entered the prime minister's office to resign from his position and tell Tony Abbott he wants his job.
For Mr Abbott, it has come full circle. When Mr Abbott took the leadership from Mr Turnbull in late 2009 it was by one vote. How the spill will end this time is not clear.
Professor Carol Johnson of the University of Adelaide said despite the air of dissatisfaction around the prime minister, Mr Turnbull's assentation is not certain.
"With the Liberal Party room one cannot be entirely sure about which way their voting process is going to go," the political scientist told Yahoo7.
"We can't be sure whether Malcolm Turnbull hasn't made an agreement with (social services minister) Scott Morrison to be treasurer and for Julie Bishop to be deputy which should bring it straight down the line."
The winner will need to convince half of the Liberal party's 101 upper and lower house MPs to back their cause. While the result is uncertain, based on February's spill, which occurred in the absence of a challenger, Mr Turnbull would only need to convince 12 MPs to change their minds.
According to Fairfax, Mr Turnbull has secured at least 60 votes, which would be enough to secure him the prime ministership, according to Liberal MPs counting the numbers.
That remains a distinct possibility. Recent polling has shown more than 40 government MPs would lose their seats were an election held now. In that situation, key and long term supporters of Tony Abbott would find their jobs in peril.
Within moments of addressing the media on Monday afternoon, Mr Turnbull and his key supporters would have been visiting parliamentary officers and hitting the phones to take names and figure out who is supporting whom.
When Mr Turnbull made his plans clear to the PM on Monday afternoon he was accompanied by deputy leader Julie Bishop, an apparent ally and potential future rival.
A skilled operator and media darling, Ms Bishop has publically supported her leader throughout the year. But it seems her allegiance has clearly shifted if she was the woman in the room Messrs Abbott and Turnbull.
The PM managed to fight off a challenge from Mr Turnbull in February when a number of colleagues said they'd had enough of the "captain's calls".
"I've listened. I've learned, I will change and the government will change with me," the prime minister said when the partyroom voted 61 to 39 against a challenge.
But now things are different, and it appears the former minister for communications has the numbers to beat his boss in leadership vote.
"We’ve got well over 50 percent," one source told Fairfax.
Prof Johnson said Labor "must be deeply worried" about a Turnbull prime ministership.
"If he can keep unity within the Liberal Party – he's a very skilled operator and given Shorten's lacklustre performance it will be a challenge for him to go up against Turnbull."
Australian politics has a lot of experience in removing sitting prime ministers, with two being removed in the past five years alone. Typically, the challenger resigns their post and move to the backbench.
Prof Johnson said it was convention for political challengers to resign to allow their leaders the chance to hold meetings with their leadership team.
"It would be very hard to have a (Cabinet) meeting with them challenging. Most modern parties have a convention of cabinet solidarity," Prof Johnson said.
News break - September 14
