Rare chance for Aussies to see spectacular Aurora Australis before winter ends: 'Most active'
Scientists are predicting when and where the next Aurora Australis will occur based off the Sun's current solar activity.
Aussies could be in for another spectacular light show from Aurora Australis as the Sun is currently in its most active phase of its solar cycle, according to a space expert. Based off the Sun’s recent activity and number of sunspots, scientists are predicting we could see more Aurora Australis light displays in parts of the country they are usually not visible before winter is over.
In May, thousands of magical images of the colourful Aurora lit up our social media feeds, as skywatchers from across Australia captured the dramatic solar storms which are usually only visible from Tasmania or southern parts of Victoria.
However, this year the night sky was lit up by stunning red, pink, green and purple hues in outback WA, Tasmania, coastal Victoria and South Australia, parts of NSW and even as far north as Queensland.
Dr Rebecca Allen, co-director of the Space Technology and Industry Institute at Swinburne University in Melbourne, told Yahoo News Australia, Auroras that come as high north as the May one were caused by extreme geomagnetic events.
“The Sun is currently in the most active phase of its solar cycle, meaning it is prone to have more flares and ejections that cause the dramatic Aurora,” she said.
She said the conditions are right for Aussies to see more Aurora Australis reach higher latitudes again before the end of winter.
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“In order to understand if another one of these will occur, scientist use current data on the number of sunspots visible as well as the Sun’s X-ray, UV and radio wavelength emissions,” Allen told Yahoo News.
“They then model this with past data and events to create a forecast. But even if there is a high likelihood of activity, we still can’t 100 per cent guarantee an event more than a few days out.
“Where the Aurora can be seen is directly dependent on the strength of the geomagnetic storm as well as when it reaches Earth.
“If a strong event is coincident with our night, then the Aurora will come much further north than if it were to happen in the middle of the day. Essentially it would have dissipated before our skies were dark enough to see it.”
Allen said the Sun had a 11-year cycle of activity with a maximum and minimum.
“Normally, when we are experiencing a solar maximum there are more sunspots and a higher chance of the flares and ejecta that cause Aurora,” she said.
“But there is still much we do not understand about the Sun and how this activity correlates with the cycle. This is why there is so much dedicated research and spacecraft studying the Sun’s atmosphere and magnetic field.
“The solar storms may appear to us as beautiful Aurora, but they often damage satellites and can disrupt power supplies on Earth.
“Being able to better predict them give us a better chance to catch the magnificent show while safe-guarding our critical infrastructure.”
She said when the geomagnetic storms interact with Earth’s magnetic field, the energetic particles are funnelled along until they reach the poles.
“Here they literally slam into our atmosphere exciting the nitrogen and oxygen,” Allen explained. “This exchange is what produces the different colours and is why we get the ribbon structures.”
BOM will issue an Aurora Watch notice 48 hours before an event
A spokesperson from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said we were currently approaching a solar maximum which meant there was heightened frequency and intensity of solar activity, meaning another Aurora could be on its way.
“Solar activity is responsible for the geomagnetic storms around the Earth which enhance the Auroras,” they told Yahoo News.
“As with any forecast, we can’t say with any certainty when the next Aurora event will occur, but as we approach the solar maximum, we can certainly expect some activity.”
The BOM will issue an Aurora Watch notice with lead times of 48 hours when solar wind conditions look favourable for Auroras to occur within the next one to two days.
“The last time we had a geomagnetic storm of similar strength to the recent one was in 2003, however this does not necessarily mean it will be another 20 years until the next one,” the spokesperson added.
Associate Professor John O’Bryne, astronomer for the Sydney Institute for Astronomy, said any Aurora was most visible in the southern parts of the country – especially Tasmania – and it was “relatively rare” to see them in Sydney.
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