Coronavirus: Why an expert fears Melbourne's lockdown may not be working
A top epidemiologist says Victoria’s coronavirus cases aren’t dropping as quickly as expected and they may not be low enough for restrictions to be removed next month.
Victoria has been reporting significantly lower numbers in recent days with the state announcing 282 new cases on Monday along with 25 deaths.
On Sunday, 279 cases and a further 16 deaths had been reported.
This comes after a record high of 725 cases on August 5.
However, Melbourne University epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely told news.com.au numbers aren’t as low as it was hoped and if the trend continues the state won’t see less than 50 cases a day by the end of the six-week lockdown.
Lockdown is due to end on September 13 after it was extended on Sunday.
“On the five-day average graph, we reached a peak on July 30 and then plateaued one week to 10 days after mandatory masks were introduced,” he told news.com.au.
“Cases fell quite quickly in the week following August 4, quicker than I expected but then in the last week — which is seven days after stage 4 lockdown — it’s actually slowed and that’s what I find odd.”
No ‘magic number’ to lift lockdown
Professor Jodie McVernon from the Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity told Nine’s Today Show there isn’t really a “magic number” to lift lockdown.
“I think we are definitely past the peak,” she told the program.
“We're seeing the downward trend we were hoping to. It wasn't that long ago we had numbers in the 700s.
“What we see as the case numbers come down those beneficial affects start to amplify.
“When case numbers are high we see more outbreaks, particularly in residential aged care.”
‘Very encouraging’ modelling for next 10 days
Ben Phillips, an associate professor in population biology at Melbourne University, told Yahoo News Australia active cases in Victoria could almost halve over the next 10 days.
Melbourne University has created a website using Johns Hopkins University data that works similarly to a weather forecast by predicting how active coronavirus cases will change based off current trajectories.
“The modelling assumes what has been happening for the last seven to 10 days continues to happen,” Associate Professor Phillips told Yahoo News Australia.
“In Victoria, it’s very encouraging. The growth rate has been declining steadily for at least the last 20 days. Of course as lockdown measures increase that’s what is expected to continue.”
Professor Phillips said if the growth rate continued to drop in Victoria then the number of active cases in the state was expected to decrease quite rapidly over the next 10 days.
“It should drop at the same speed it went up,” he said.
However, he warned people still needed to remain vigilant despite the promising prediction.
Returned travellers identified as source of 99 per cent of cases
An inquiry into the COVID-19 hotel quarantine program on Monday heard where a majority of the second wave of cases are stemming from.
The head of the Doherty Institute's genomic sequencing unit, Professor Ben Howden, told the inquiry about "99 per cent" of Victoria's second wave of coronavirus can be linked to returned travellers in hotel quarantine.
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In late May, when the virus first broke out of hotel quarantine, 19 people in Victoria had died from COVID-19.
The state's death toll now stands at 334, with almost 7500 cases active.
The inquiry continues on Tuesday.
with AAP
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