Campaign Diary Day One
Alex Hart, 7News Political Reporter
And so it begins... Kevin Rudd has fired the starters gun, and now he and Tony Abbott are in locked in a 34-day race for the Prime Ministership.
It wasn't expected to begin like this. In recent years, the timing of the Prime Minister's decision to visit the Governor-General's residence to call the election has been well known to the media. This time, Rudd wanted to keep everyone guessing until the last minute. Most commentators were tipping Monday as the day.
Wrong, again.
The events of the 43rd Parliament, with all the twists and turns, have been very hard to predict.
Predicting the winner of this election won't be easy either.
Our Seven News/Reachtel opinion poll on Sunday night was the first of the campaign. It shows the Coalition in front 52% to 48% on a two party preferred basis, and Abbott surprisingly in front as the 'Better PM'.
The general consensus is that it is his election to lose, and I subscribe to that theory.
Despite the achievements Labor hails, the party will find it to overcome the perception and reality of internal division, incompetence and untrustworthiness that has plagued its six years of governance.
Rudd has tried to shed that baggage with his campaign slogan, 'A New Way'. It's hardly the message that a government that is proud of its record would want to convey. He is effectively saying that the old way of governing has failed, and that a new way is needed. That is fine if you're in Opposition. But Rudd is not.
Then again, he is desperate to distance himself from Julia Gillard. We've seen him in recent weeks try to neutralise the policy problems that beset her leadership... On the carbon tax and asylum seekers most notably.
That has allowed him now to focus on what Labor believes is its strengths. Economic management, education funding reform, disability insurance and the National Broadband Network will be key issues Rudd campaigns on.
He will also try to paint Abbott as representing the old way. Like his strategy against John Howard in 2007, Rudd wants portray himself as the future and Abbott as the past...Himself as 'positive' and Abbott as 'negative'.
Negativity is arguably Abbott's biggest vulnerability. For years, he has proven to be an excellent Opposition Leader by dismantling Labor's record. But now he is under real pressure to outline his vision for Australia, not just criticise his opponent's.
The Coalition is by no means a certainty to win. Rudd is an exceptional campaigner, and Abbott has looked less confident since his return to the Prime Ministership. Whatever the outcome, it promises to be an enthralling ride ahead on the road to September 7.
Throughout the campaign, I will offer you a regular snapshot from my side of the trail. For the first week, I'll be travelling with Abbott, then alternating with Rudd each week after that.
Strap yourselves in.
