Elite Australian commandos still waiting for green light to go into Iraq

Six weeks after they were first deployed, Australian commandos are still waiting in the United Arab Emirates for the green light to begin operations in Iraq.

The ABC understands most of those at the Australian base at Al Minhad are from Charlie Company – one of four elite units that make up the 2nd Commando Regiment.

Charlie Company is one of the Australian Defence Force's most highly-trained units, with specialists in counter-terrorism able to be rapidly deployed in a conflict zone.

They are well-equipped and skilled at target spotting and calling in strike aircraft.

And after years of on-the-ground experience in Afghanistan they now have a considerable amount of experience in mentoring and training – a role that for the moment at least will be the primary focus of their mission.

At this stage Australian forces in Iraq will not be conducting their own independent operations but rather working with Iraqi military units on what has been dubbed an 'Advise and Assist' mission.

However, some insiders describe it as a "triple A Mission - Advise, Assist and Accompany".

Lowy Institute military fellow James Brown says "Accompany" is actually the key to their role.

"You can't do [mentoring and training] remotely, so our special forces trainers will need to be with these Iraqi units as they move forward, as they approach towns held by [Islamic State], and potentially as they assault those towns as well," Mr Brown said.

It is not known how long the mission will last.

Prime Minster Tony Abbott has said it will take months rather than weeks, and former Army chief Peter Leahy talks of it as the "battle of the century".

In a recent address to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a defence and security think tank, Mr Leahy said he could see no end to the conflict, and found it very difficult to imagine what peace would look like.

Few experts believe airstrikes and training will be enough to defeat Islamic State forces.

Despite public pronouncements by US president Barack Obama that the coalition would not be going into Iraq with troops, even General Martin E Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said that if the airstrikes do not work the US should be prepared to deploy ground troops.

But a constraint against this becoming a long and drawn out conflict is economic.

The US is currently spending about $900 million a month on the fight against IS and it is estimated the current plans for the US operation could costs rise to more than $20 billion a year.

Estimates for Australia are somewhere closer to $500 million a year, but the longer the conflict continues the more it will strain the budget and stretch Australia's military capacity.

According to Mr Brown, Australian special forces have an important role in the region and 200 soldiers is huge number to keep indefinitely in the Middle East.

"We'd struggle to keep that number of special forces in the Middle East and maintain domestic counter-terrorism forces, and maintain special forces for contingencies closer to home," he said.

Most analysts believe that if the situation on the ground in Iraq can at least be stabilised, longer-term commitment may well see Special Forces replaced by conventional troops.