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Why ‘Oppenheimer’ Will Win Everything at This Year’s Oscars

Photo Illustration by Luis G. Rendon/The Daily Beast/Getty/Universal
Photo Illustration by Luis G. Rendon/The Daily Beast/Getty/Universal

This week

  • That movie (and that butt) is how old???

  • My totally accurate Oscar predictions.

  • The movie I can’t wait for.

  • My favorite performance on TV right now.

  • My single Traitors finale take.

Fill Out Your Scorecards

This is a rare year for the Oscars. Not only are the nominees—this never happens—actually good, but every detail we’ve heard about the show makes me excited. (Former winners as presenters! Ryan Gosling performing!) We’re so conditioned to complain about the Academy Awards telecast. This year, it might actually be fun!

I’m an awards gay, which means that I track all this silliness way more seriously than anyone should. So I thought I’d offer my take on what will win this year, and also what I think should win. There are obviously a lot of projects and actors that I wish were in the conversation instead, but these are what I make of the actual nominees (so that I don’t write a 400th post advocating for All of Us Strangers).

Gif of Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer
Tenor

Best Picture

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: The Holdovers; A perfect movie about imperfect people.

Best Director

Will Win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Should Win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer; That bomb going “boom” was legitimately thrilling, and I used to want to press charges on directors of movies over two-and-a-half hours.

Best Actor

Will Win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Should Win: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers; A treasured actor gets his perfect role, and we might get to see his statue at a fast food restaurant as a bonus.

Best Actress

Will win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Should win: Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall; This is the only race that’s not pre-ordained, and I think Emma Stone could take it for Poor Things. But when I think of this last year in acting, Sandra is what I keep going back to.

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

Should win: Ryan Gosling - Barbie; Every time I’ve rewatched this movie, I’m more impressed by the huge swings he took with this role. And “I’m Just Ken” will live forever in movie history.

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Should win: Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple; There is no category more sewn up than this, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph is brilliant in The Holdovers. But the turbulent journey from joy to trauma and back again that Danielle Brooks takes in The Color Purple is my favorite performance of the year.

Anne Hathaway Never Misses

I don’t normally let trailers make me more excited than I should be for a movie, but I can’t wait for The Idea of You.

The trailer shows a mom, played by Anne Hathaway, who accidentally meets a major pop star at Coachella, and the two start a romance despite their age difference and her skepticism. The movie is based on the book, which is essentially Harry Styles fanfiction.

Anne Hathaway in a scene from 'The Idea of You'
Prime Video

I haven’t been this giddy about a movie in a long time. It might be brilliant; it might be terrible. I have no idea. But Anne Hathaway doing reverse Julia Roberts in Notting Hill? That is pop-culture porn to me. I also am obsessed with Nicholas Galitzine after Red, White & Royal Blue, because I am nothing if not basic. But the fact that they’re doing actual fake pop songs for his One Direction-inspired band, and that Hathaway is fully committed to this in the trailer (I got weepy at one point), sells this for me.

Watch it here.

Give Her an Emmy

As a noted grouch, cynic, and generally annoying person, I’ve always found Curb Your Enthusiasm to be an inspiring television program. I feel seen. This season has been uneven, but the standout by far has been Tracey Ullman, who plays a woman we’re supposed to think is so off-putting that Larry (or any human) would never want to be with her. And yet, after each of her episodes, I think, “I get her.” So line right up to date me, but also give Ullman her accolades for an award-worthy performance.

Gif of Tracey Ullman in a scene from "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
HBO

The Traitors Finale Was Brilliant

I don’t want to fully spoil—only lightly spoil—The Traitors finale, but justice is owed to Shereé Whitfield on behalf of all of us who don’t listen when someone reads the rules of the game and plans to just vibe while everyone else plays.

Kate Chastain and Shereé Whitfield in a scene from "Traitors"

Kate Chastain and Shereé Whitfield in a scene from "Traitors"

Peacock

What to watch this week:

Supersex: But, like, watch it for the dialogue scenes. (Now on Netflix)

The Oscars: I really think it’s going to be a fun show this year. (Sun. on ABC)

Girls5eva: The 30 Rock successor we all need. (Thurs. on Netflix)

What to skip this week:

Ricky Stanicky: Bring back dumb comedies that are actually funny. (Now on Prime Video)

Damsel: You could probably predict every beat of this movie by its plot description. (Now on Netflix)

Imaginary: I’m sorry, but a killer teddy bear/imaginary friend should be more fun. (now in theaters)

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