When is the next federal election? Everything you need to know
In the coming weeks Australians will head back to the polls to elect a new federal government.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison finally called the election, announcing Australia will go to the polls on May 21.
The prime minister announced the election date after meeting with Governor-General David Hurley at Government House and informing him of his intention to dissolve parliament.
May 21 was the last day the election could be held. The election date gives him six weeks to face off against opposition leader Anthony Albanese.
We knew the election would be held on either May 14 or May 21, and the PM was asked throughout the week into the lead up to the announcement when it would take place.
Opposition leader Anthony Albanese has accused the prime minister of holding off in order to spend more tax-payer money on government advertising and to appoint last minute jobs to Liberal party allies.
"This absurdity of not having the election called so that they can continue to spend taxpayer funds on election ads that are in the name of the government, but they're really about promoting the Liberal National parties ... call the election, let the Australian people decide," Mr Albanese told reporters in Adelaide on Friday.
Speaking on Sunday, Mr Morrison said "so much" was at stake this election for Australians and their future.
"We are dealing with a world that is less stable than at any other time since the Second World War," he said.
"Our economy has many, many moving parts and there are many great risks - but I believe there are many, many opportunities there to be seized from the strong position that we've put ourselves in as a country as we emerge strongly from this pandemic.
"Now is not the time to risk that."
But Labor has been ahead in the polls consistently since June 2021, currently sitting on a two-party preferred vote of 55 per cent.
Election window dictated by 'very tight timetable'
Australia is pretty unusual among democracies in that we have maximum federal term limits of just three years.
"We have a very tight election timetable,” says Professor Ian McAllister, the co-director of the Australian Election Study.
"Virtually every other country in the world has four or five year terms," he tells Yahoo News Australia.
"It means that political leaders have relatively little room to manoeuvre."
Because the term limits of the House of Representatives don’t align with the Senate (which has fixed terms of six years), to have a typical election which involves the entire lower house and half the upper house, prime ministers have about a 10-month window to choose the election date.
That is because it can’t be called until one year before the end of Senate terms, and due to the complicated process of counting the votes in the upper house, at least six weeks is required after the election before Senators begin their term.
Effectively, for a customary election to be held this time around, it must happen by May 21, 2022.
Are there other possible election day outcomes?
Well yes, but they’re very unlikely.
As the ABC’s election guru Antony Green points out, there is a highly improbable option for a half-Senate election by May 21 and a separate House or Representatives election as late as September 3, next year.
Holding the House of Reps and Senate elections at different times has only happened twice in history (1929 and 1963) and voters are sure not to appreciate a third.
There is also the possibility of a double dissolution election which would clear out the entire Senate. It is what Malcolm Turnbull called in 2016, but that is also very unlikely. Major parties don't like doing that as it halves the number of votes needed to get into the Senate, leading to more fringe candidates obtaining seats.
When is Scott Morrison’s best chance to win?
With the logistical stuff out of the way, there is only one thing that determines when Scott Morrison goes to the Governor-General to make it official: when he thinks he has the best chance to win.
"He can call the election whenever he wants, the main issue is whether he’s going to win or not," Professor McAllister says.
Currently the incumbent Coalition trail Labor in national polls on a two-party preferred basis, but that wouldn't worry the PM who would also be keenly judging internal polling, and targeted focus group sessions, according to Dr Haydon Manning, adjunct professor at Flinders University.
"It's certainly not uncommon for a PM to face that kind of deficit in the polls, and come back to win," he says.
For Mr Morrison, the sweet spot will be after the country hits national vaccine targets and has opened up but before hospitals come under too much strain.
"The great risk still lurking out there is what will occur once restrictions are relaxed. If our hospitals are suddenly struggling it’s not going to be a great time for an election ... plus the prospect of restrictions coming back into play.
"It's a profound set of balls for him to juggle," Prof Manning says.
Once the PM goes to the Governor-General and the election writs are issued, there is a minimum of 33 days before polling day – and the all important democracy sausages – can take place.
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