Executions will strain our ties
The imminent executions of Myuran Sukumaran and Andrew Chan provide the greatest test for Indonesia-Australia relations since the East Timor crisis in 1999.
The execution of the Bali Nine duo, expected as early as tonight, will come despite the enormous backlash from around the world, including Australia, over the decision to proceed with the execution of the drug traffickers.
Following the executions, there is the likelihood that Australia will recall our recently appointed ambassador to Indonesia, Paul Grigson, and there will be calls for Australia to impose trade and tourism sanctions, withdraw aid funding and government-to-government co-operation.
The announcement of the intent to kill the two men has resulted in the cancellation of a visit to Perth today by Indonesia’s respected former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
The entire handling of the planned execution of Sukumaran and Chan by Indonesian officials has been a debacle and is quite rightly being seen internationally as cruel and insensitive. Australia has every right to express its disappointment and objection given that Indonesia will proceed with these executions.
Australia’s reaction to the deaths of these two men will need to be considered very carefully, however, in the current volatile environment.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott can no longer simply pick up the phone and talk to “Australia’s friend” SBY as president, and while Foreign Minister Julie Bishop can still text former counterpart Marty Natalegawa, the new Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi is reluctant to take any calls.
Abbott and Bishop will also be aware that Indonesian democracy and stability under President Joko Widodo’s seven month-old administration is in a very fragile condition as the Government shows the signs of inexperience, naivety and considerable dysfunction.
Add to this a wave of nationalism engulfing our northern neighbour and we have a perfect storm for the bilateral relationship.
In attacking Indonesia for what is being seen by many Australians as a barbaric act, we need to remember that as a young nation we embraced capital punishment for 84 years, until we finally removed the death sentence from the statute in 1985. It took generations and years of community debate to demonstrate to the Australian people that a civil society should not legally kill anyone.
Indonesia is only 67 years old as an independent nation, and democracy — where the people and civil society campaigners can speak openly about the need for social change — is only in its 17th year.
In Australia, we now embrace the notion that smoking, for example, is terrible and we have laws and community support to ensure our population avoids this lethal drug. In Indonesia young people are subjected to vast tobacco advertising and availability, and community attitudes are still divided as to whether smoking is dangerous; even though more than 400,000 Indonesians die each year from lung cancer.
Indonesia is learning that community support and understanding is needed to achieve a significant reduction in the number of people who smoke. From the Australian experience, it will take several generations to get the total community awareness to allow for that change. Capital punishment is no different.
For the past 10 years there has been debate among civil society advocates in Indonesia about the need to stop the legalised killing of people for serious crimes. But it needs an extensive community and national discussion and awareness campaign. It will happen, but it will take more than 17 years.
As this terrible story unfolds, the question needs to be asked: How bad can things get between our two countries?
Sadly, there is the very real potential for things to get a lot worse as even Joko faces a threat to his political survival, while the spill over effect of domestic instability within Indonesia will leave Australian diplomats very worried indeed.
The implications of what is now playing out are significant.
Only last month highly respected defence expert Professor Alan Dupont urged Australia and Indonesia to foster closer strategic partnerships in defence.
As we witness the rise and rise of China in the region, and the US response to that expansion, Dupont is right to highlight the critical joint role for Indonesia and Australia in keeping our region secure.
But how do we achieve that objective when our two leaders don’t even talk to each other?
People smuggling, antiterrorism efforts, business and trade opportunities are further reasons that demand close relations between Indonesia and Australia.
Therefore, here in Australia, a measured response to the execution of Chan and Sukumaran is critical. This is necessary to avoid feeding the strong nationalistic furore engulfing Indonesia amid chaotic domestic events, including the appointment of the national chief of police and the attack on the Anti-Corruption Commission.
Joko can still turn his political fortunes around but it won’t be easy because no one is really sure where the turmoil engulfing his administration will lead.
We know we must tread with great care.
As these two men die, so will a part of Indonesia’s humanity. Much is at stake, much more than just our precious Bali holidays.
Ross Taylor is president of the WA-based Indonesia Institute
