NSW reveals Delta modelling as state records 1,281 cases

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  • NSW records 1281 new Covid cases

  • Five new Covid-related deaths

  • Modelling shows ICU surge expected in October

NSW has recorded 1281 new Covid-19 cases and five deaths, taking the state's death toll for this outbreak to 131.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian said 750,000 people have come forward to get vaccinated in the last week, while there are 177 people in hospital intensive care units across the state.

The premier has revealed she received modelling last week about ICU requirements and NSW Health will make that public.

"Last week I received modelling on when our health experts think the peak will hit in terms of the number of cases, what ICU requirements might be and what the number of people in hospital might be," Ms Berejiklian said.

"And I am pleased to say that today we will be making all of that public."

Covid cases in NSW continue to climb. Source: Getty Images/AAP
Covid cases in NSW continue to climb. Source: Getty Images/AAP

However, she warned the modelling depends on a number of variables and Ms Berejiklian stressed it depends on people doing the right thing and warned a super spreading event could skew the numbers.

The modelling shows cases in LGAs of concern will continue to see cases surge, with between 1,100 to 2,000 cases per day until mid-September.

Until mid-September, 2,200 and 3,900 could be hospitalised following the surge in cases.

The modelling indicates cases are likely to peak in the next few weeks, while hospitalisations should surge in October.

the modelling shows there could be 947 Covid patients in the ICU by the end of October. Source: NSW Health
the modelling shows there could be 947 Covid patients in the ICU by the end of October. Source: NSW Health

There are currently 1,071 Covid patients in hospital, 177 people in intensive care, 67 of whom require ventilation.

Ms Berejiklian said the hospital capacity is there in NSW.

“At any given time in our hospital system, there would be around 400 people with non- COVID related issues in ICU and so our surge capacity including staff in our intensive care units is 1550,” Ms Berejiklian said.

“We certainly don't want to have to use of all those beds and staff, because we know what pressure it will put on the system but we want everybody to be reassured that the capacity is there.”

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Over the weekend, NSW recorded over 3000 new infections, with 1533 announced on Saturday and 1485 on Sunday.

The modelling presented by NSW Health on Monday is based off data from August 23 before the state was recording more than 1000 daily cases 

However, the premier claimed she asked for the "up-to-date" modelling at the end of last week.

Professor Tony Blakely, a public health specialist at the University of Melbourne, on Monday said case numbers in NSW could hit 3000 a day before peaking. High hospitalisation numbers could also last a year.

"We're all going to have to deal with it because next year, when we open the borders, we will have high hospitalisation numbers for at least a year," he told ABC TV.

Urge for people to seek care for Covid

Of the new deaths announced on Monday, one was a man aged in his 90s, he was a resident at St George Aged Care Facility in Bexley, where he acquired his infection.

Two women aged in their 80s died, one succumbed to her illness at Ryde Hospital and other at Westmead Hospital.

On man from the Southern Highlands died at his home and was aged in his 60s, Dr Kerry Chant said he tested positive for Covid after his death and his case has been referred to the coroner.

The fifth death was a woman in her 50s, she died at Westmead Hospital.

The Chief Health Officer urged people to come forward for testing and seek care if necessary, even if they believe they have done something in breach of the public health orders.

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