When is the next general election? The dates Rishi Sunak is considering
In theory, there are still three potential scenarios for a general election: a poll in the early summer, an autumn election, or a ballot at the last possible moment, in December or January 2025.
Here, The Telegraph examines each of those possibilities and the processes involved, including how votes are called and who can take part.
When is the next general election?
It is looking increasingly likely that Rishi Sunak will wait until the autumn to call a general election to allow time for the new Rwanda deterrent and recent tax cuts to take effect.
While Mr Sunak has refused to rule out a July election, he has said a ballot in the second half of the year is his “working assumption” and Jeremy Hunt, his Chancellor, has hinted at an October poll.
In short, one of the few people who may currently be able to say for certain is the Prime Minister. But, even if he has provisionally picked a date, Mr Sunak might yet change his mind - depending on how the Tories fare in the coming days and weeks.
The general consensus seems to be for an autumn vote. George Osborne, the former chancellor, claimed on his Political Currency podcast in January that Downing Street had singled out Nov 14 as the likely date for a ballot.
Sir John Curtice, Britain’s foremost polling guru, also suggested Nov 14, arguing Oct 2 – set to be the final day of the Conservative Party conference – could see Mr Sunak fire the “starting gun” on the contest.
And while Parliament was in its Easter recess, Michael Gove, the Levelling Up Secretary, predicted the national vote was likely to take place on either Nov 14 or 21.
In March, Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, suggested the election was expected in October. But Mr Sunak has refused to be drawn further, laughing off demands to name a date as he insisted the announcement would be made in the “formal and official way”.
Why would the Tories opt for an autumn election?
An autumn election, in the minds of Tory strategists, would allow time for the benefits of policies introduced earlier this year to be felt by voters, while also factoring in a potential cut to interest rates.
Mr Sunak has explicitly said that between now and an election “in the second half of this year”, he would get on with “managing the economy well and cutting people’s taxes”.
The Chancellor has announced two 2p cuts to National Insurance - in autumn 2023 and spring 2024 - which have now taken effect.
If he goes to the polls in November, Mr Sunak could use the Conservatives’ annual conference at the end of September to rally his troops ahead of a national campaign. Mr Osborne also speculated that it would allow time for the party to “fit in an autumn statement, like a mini-Budget, either before that or immediately after it”.
Alternatively, Mr Sunak could opt to call an election as soon as the Commons returns from its summer recess in September, with voters going to the ballot box the following month. Under this scenario, party conferences would be cancelled.
Could we have a summer election?
Tory figures close to the election plan are working from the assumption that we won’t have a summer election.
The bet on an autumn election is partly based on the assumption that the party can significantly improve its standing in the polls between now and then.
But not everyone is convinced that it can. Mr Sunak’s advisers are concerned that flagship policies designed to improve their fortunes have failed to deliver the desired bump in the polls.
James Frayne, the founding partner of research agency Public First, said the public has largely now “collectively switched off the Tories, like an annoying radio show”.
“Most voters just can’t be bothered with them anymore. It’s just the same old politicians droning on about the same old problems. It’s hard to see how the party can cut through at all, regardless of whether they call an election or not,” he said.
If Mr Sunak finds that major policy announcements keep falling flat, he may decide to give up on waiting until the autumn and take his chances with an earlier election.
Why is the general election not on the same day as the local elections?
The local election could have been called on May 2 but Rishi Sunak made the decision to avoid a spring election.
Tory figures have said that improving economic figures such as falling inflation, the possibility of an interest rate cut and time for new tax cuts to be felt meant that a later election made sense.
The Institute for Government pointed out that a spring election would avoid the risk that “a heavy defeat in the local elections could increase pressure on the Prime Minister – including from within his party – and make it difficult to regain momentum ahead of an election that would by then be less than a year away”.
However, that opportunity has passed. On March 14, the Prime Minister ruled out a national ballot on May 2, confirming there “won’t be a general election on that day”.
Heavy losses at the locals could tempt restless Tory MPs to mount a challenge against their leader.
The Prime Minister could, however, still attempt to wrong-foot his detractors by seizing the initiative himself and calling an election that would be held the following month, in June.
What is the latest date Sunak could call an election?
Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, Parliament will automatically be dissolved on Dec 17 2024 – five years after the 2019 election – if a poll has not been called by that point.
The last possible date for an election would be 25 working days later, on Jan 28 2025 – however, by convention, polls are usually held on a Thursday, meaning that Jan 23 2025 is the last likely date.
A Jan 2025 election would give the Conservatives the maximum possible time to deliver on their pledges, including on cutting NHS waiting lists, reducing debt and stopping the passage of small boats across the Channel. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has previously said it expects that waiting lists will only begin falling from mid-2024.
Given recent polling and Mr Frayne’s characterisation of voters’ views of the Conservatives, such an approach might, on current course, be based on unrealistic levels of optimism.
A January election would also involve would-be MPs campaigning over Christmas – an unattractive prospect for all the major parties and probably the public too.
What will influence Sunak’s decision?
Key factors for the Prime Minister will include whether economic statistics such as the level of inflation are continuing to improve, and whether polling and focus group research suggest that voters are feeling the positive effects of the National Insurance cuts and crediting the Tories for the boost.
Any success in getting Rwanda deportation flights off the ground would also strengthen the case for going to the polls in the summer, as would the steady decline of the NHS elective waiting list.
It had been rumoured that figures in Downing Street were mulling over whether it would be in the Tories’ interests to trigger a ballot sooner rather than later, despite being way behind Labour in the polls - with No 10 declining to rule out a vote in June or July.
But the Prime Minister has since made clear that it will take months worth of Rwanda flights to curb Channel crossings, suggesting he is inclined to play the long game.
He stressed the policy “isn’t just about one flight” - rather, being able to deliver “a regular rhythm, a drum beat of multiple flights a month over the summer and beyond”.
Of course, it is possible that Mr Sunak decides to call a ballot regardless of these factors, if he believes things could only go downhill if he waits.
How are general elections called?
It is up to the Prime Minister to decide when to hold a national vote - but this power has only been restored in recent years.
In 2011, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act effectively put the House of Commons in charge, with general elections held every five years unless a majority of MPs willed it otherwise.
For an election to be called early, two thirds of the House had to back the plans. This is how Theresa May’s snap election was triggered in 2017. Alternatively, MPs could spark a ballot by passing a vote of no confidence in the Government.
After trying and failing three times to secure the necessary two thirds majority for an early vote in 2019, the Tories opted to circumvent the law with a new purpose-built piece of legislation - the Early Parliamentary General Election Act - which required only a simple majority to pass. This paved the way for Boris Johnson’s snap election in 2019.
The Government went on to repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, replacing it with the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act. This new law stripped the Commons of its power to block an early ballot - putting the Prime Minister back in control.
Traditionally the Prime Minister travels to Buckingham Palace to request the dissolution of Parliament, before returning to Downing Street to announce the forthcoming election.
Who can vote in the general election?
The vast majority of UK adults can vote in a general election.
In order to vote, you must:
be registered to vote
be 18 or over on the day of the election (‘polling day’)
be a British, Irish or qualifying Commonwealth citizen
be a resident at an address in the UK or Gibraltar, or living abroad and registered as an overseas voter (it is also possible to register if you have no fixed address)
not be legally excluded from voting (for example, if you are serving a prison sentence)
When should I register to vote?
The deadline for registering to vote is usually midnight at the end of the 12th working day before polling day.
When will polling take place?
Parliament would be dissolved a few days after the election is announced and polling day would take place 25 working days after that.
The Civil Service would then enter “purdah” – the period between an election being called and polling day which involves strict restrictions on the work of officials to ensure that Whitehall resources are not being used to benefit any party in particular.
