More Americans say they think former President Trump will beat President Biden if they are their parties’ respective nominees for president, according to a new poll by The Economist/YouGov.
Asked in a poll to predict who would win, “regardless of who you prefer,” 44 percent said Trump, 35 percent said Biden and 21 percent said they were not sure.
They remain split, however, on which candidate they support — with 43 percent supporting Biden and 43 percent supporting Trump. Six percent said “other,” 5 percent weren’t sure, and 3 percent said they wouldn’t vote.
The majority of Americans, 57 percent, also expect Trump to be the GOP nominee. That number is led by Republicans — 76 percent of whom say they think Trump will be the GOP nominee for president in 2024.
The number reflects the commanding lead Trump has among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents — 65 percent say in this poll that they would support Trump if the primary were held today.
The GOP primary contest begins Monday with the Iowa caucuses, which Trump is heavily favored to win.
Democrats were less confident in Trump’s popularity, with only 45 percent of them saying they expected him to be the GOP nominee. A plurality said otherwise — with 29 percent answering “not sure” and 26 percent saying someone else would win the nomination.
More than half of Independents, 53 percent, thought Trump would win the nomination, however. Thirty-five percent said they were not sure, while 13 percent said someone else.
The poll was conducted Jan. 7-9 and included 1,593 adult U.S. citizens. There was a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.