Modi Alliance to Win Most Votes in Key India State, Survey Shows

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An alliance led by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is expected to get the majority votes in the country’s most populous state, according to an opinion survey published some two weeks before national elections.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is expected to get 52% of votes, similar to their showing in 2019, in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, according to findings from ABP News-CVoter opinion poll late Tuesday. An opposition coalition is likely to see its share of the vote at 36%, with another regional party predicted to score 7% of the share.

Uttar Pradesh is politically important because the state alone sends 80 lawmakers to the 543-member lower house of parliament. Modi is predicting his party and allies will win more than 400 seats in the legislature.

Read more: Rural India Is Behind Modi’s Success, Despite Elusive Benefits

In the 2019 elections, the BJP and its allies took 51.2% of the votes in Uttar Pradesh. This time, Modi is banking on strong economic progress and Hindu nationalist policies, including the opening of a temple where a centuries-old mosque once stood, to return to power for a record third term.

Here are some of the other findings from the survey:

  • 42% of the poll respondents were highly satisfied with Modi’s government while 29% reported being less satisfied and 27% were dissatisfied

  • 62% want to see Modi as prime minister, and 24% want Rahul Gandhi of the opposition Congress to get the top post

  • On the performance of the BJP-controlled state government in Uttar Pradesh, 51% reported being very satisfied while 25% were less satisfied. Another 23% were dissatisfied

  • The survey covered 2,258 people. It has a margin of error of 3%-5% in either direction

--With assistance from Swati Gupta.

(Updates with details)

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