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Labour would win 154-seat majority if election held tomorrow, pollsters find

Rishi Sunak is on course to suffer a general election defeat similar to the Conservatives’ 1997 blowout, pollsters have found.

The latest YouGov polling has found Labour would win 403 seats from across the UK, leading to a 154-seat majority in the House of Commons.

The Conservatives would win just 155 seats, down from the 365 seats they won at the 2019 general election.

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(PA Graphics)

The analysis, which uses the multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method of polling, found that prominent Tory figures including Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg would be on course to lose their seats.

According to the pollsters, Rishi Sunak is heading for a worse result than John Major’s 1997 defeat, when the then-Tory leader won a total of 165 seats.

Sir Keir Starmer is, meanwhile, on course to win a victory on par with that of Tony Blair’s in his first term of office.

In 1997, the party’s longest-serving prime minister won 418 of the available 659 Commons seats.

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Reform Party leader Richard Tice (Stefan Rousseau/PA)

Other big Tory figures at risk of losing their seats include Cabinet members Michelle Donelan, the Science Secretary, and Welsh Secretary David TC Davies.

The model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed from March 7-27.

The Reform Party, led by Richard Tice, was found to have a growing share of the voting intention by YouGov.

It is not predicted to win any seats, and while it places second in 36 constituencies, it is not close to winning them.

Asked by the Sun newspaper’s Never Mind the Ballots programme about the Conservatives’ recent drop in the polls, Mr Sunak said: “It has been a frustrating time and I completely appreciate that. There’s going to be lots of polls.

“What matters is the general election and that’s what I’m focusing on.”

The Prime Minister said his continued “working assumption” is that an election will take place in the second half of the year, but added he has not decided when this will be as he is “busy focusing on the things that matter to people”.

According to the polling, the Lib Dems are meanwhile on course to grow their parliamentary comeback, with a projected win of 49 seats.

North of the border, YouGov estimates that Labour will be the largest party in Scotland.

They are projected to win 28 Scottish seats, followed by the SNP with 19.

The Lib Dems and Conservatives would win five each under the modelling.

The Green Party would continue to hold Brighton Pavilion according to the polling, the seat currently held by Caroline Lucas – who is standing down at the election.

The party is also a close second to Labour in the newly created Bristol Central seat.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru is expected to win a total of four seats, including the proposed Caerfyrddin constituency.