Huge claim about origins of Covid-19 by leading Aussie epidemiologist
It's widely accepted Covid-19 has natural origins, but according to a major new study the question of the source of the virus remains 'very much open'.
One of Australia's most prominent epidemiologists who led a major scientific paper on the origins of Covid-19 said it's a "credible possibility" the virus "did come from a lab" in China — a theory she said is backed by a "large amount of new information released in various congressional hearings" in the US.
Professor Raina MacIntyre with the University of NSW said the possibility the virus was created in a laboratory is just as plausible as the natural origin theory, and it shouldn't be so quickly dismissed by other academics. Speaking to Yahoo News Australia, MacIntyre, one of the country's fiercest supporters of pandemic lockdowns, explained what she uncovered through her research.
"The study uses an established tool, known as Grunow-Finke (GFT), which is cited in military medicine textbooks and well known in military medicine, to show that an unnatural origin is as plausible, if not more plausible, than a natural origin and not a low-probability, fringe theory," MacIntyre told Yahoo News.
Question of the origins of Covid-19 'remains an open one'
"It does this by considering a large range of different intelligence under 11 different criteria, and analyses it using a framework that has been tested and trained on past natural and unnatural epidemics. There is a threshold value which indicates greater likelihood if below or above the threshold."
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In epidemiology, the GFT is the most widely used tool to differentiate unnatural epidemics from natural epidemics.
MacIntyre said the "question of the origins of Covid-19 remains an open one" and a variety of different lines of evidence should be looked at when investigating the topic, including not just biology and virology, but also intelligence from government and military sources.
"The question of origins of a virus cannot be answered by virologists alone, because gain-of-function research (for example a virus which has undergone serial passage in an animal model) may not leave obvious signs of manipulation, and a resulting virus may appear 'natural'," she said.
"Nor can epidemiology alone answer the question.
"This is where risk analysis tools like the GFT are useful, because they include these and other types of intelligence to the assessments... It would be unscientific to silence ongoing investigation of the question, especially because so much new information has been revealed in the last two years through emails from FOIA requests and through several congressional hearings in the US."
Majority of unnatural epidemics wrongly classified
The "other types of intelligence" MacIntye refers to can include open source, signals or satellite intelligence, political factors, as well as other "detective work" to piece together the complex question of the origin of SARS-COV-2, according to the paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis.
The majority of unnatural epidemics in history have been wrongly judged as natural, MacIntyre explained, adding that the paper's "findings are consistent with conclusion reached by US Defence Intelligence scientists Cutlip and Chretien".
"It’s notable that US intelligence agencies are split in their verdict, with some like the FBI saying it was a likely lab leak, and others like the CIA saying the opposite – the fact these are credible agencies should tell us we cannot easily dismiss either theory," she said.
Sverdlovsk anthrax leak prime example of lab leak
"When the GFT is used to assess the anthrax leak in Sverdovsk in the Soviet Union in 1979 — which both soviet and US scientists insisted was natural — it comes up as unnatural because there was so much evidence of anomalies.
"US intelligence agencies saw satellite signs of road blocks and decontamination trucks around the bioweapons lab, suggesting a major incident, but the scientists on both sides of the Cold War denied it was a lab leak.
"The Soviets blamed animals in the markets, killed stray dogs in the market to show they were acting on it; and the US experts agreed with the Soviets that it was natural, published papers saying so in top journals, and shouted down anyone who suggested otherwise."
A full 12 years later, after the fall of the Soviet Union, Boris Yeltsin confessed that it had been a lab leak.
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