Federal election: Coalition $1.85 favourites after 'remarkable' 72 hours of betting

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Over the course of a campaign, political elections are always expected to tighten as polling day approaches. But what has happened in the first week of the federal campaign has left those working in betting markets stunned.

After starting out as a big underdog just days ago, large money flows are pushing Scott Morrison towards becoming the favourite to win another three year term of government in the betting markets.

"It's been a remarkable 72 hours," says Richard Hummerston from online bookmaking agency BlueBet.

In that period, a staggering 80 per cent of money has flown to the Coalition.

"They were $2.65 on Thursday evening. But due to the overwhelming support for the Coalition we had to shorten their price," he told Yahoo News Australia.

Scott Morrison has closed the gap, even overtaking Anthony Albanese as favourite at some bookmakers. Source: AAP
Scott Morrison has closed the gap, even overtaking Anthony Albanese as favourite at some bookmakers. Source: AAP

"One month ago, the Coalition were $3.40 to Labor’s $1.35.

"We’ve also seen multiple big bets of over $1000 on the Coalition over the weekend. If this cash continues, they will jump as short favourites."

Right now on BlueBet, the Coalition are favourites at $1.85 to Labor's $1.95.

At another betting agency, the Morrison government – which has been plagued by scandals during its most recent term – momentarily hit the front on Monday with BetFair pricing it at shorter odds ($1.97) than labor ($2.04) to win the election.

While Labor has since pulled back in front, it was the first time the Coalition has been favoured on the platform in nearly three years.

On BlueBet, the Coalition were last favoured in November 2021.

"Until the last month, it had all been for Labor who got as short as $1.33 on March 11 when the Coalition were $3.40," Mr Hummerston said.

Over on SportsBet, the race is also now effectively neck-and-neck with Labor at $1.85 and the Coalition at $1.90 on Tuesday morning.

Barely out of the gates, and the race is certainly a tight one.

Scott Morrison has hit the lead on BlueBet after an influx of money on the Coalition. Source: BlueBet
Scott Morrison has hit the lead on BlueBet after an influx of money on the Coalition. Source: BlueBet

On Tuesday, day nine of the campaign, Scott Morrison is touring marginal seats in Western Australia where the government hopes to hang on to as many lower house seats as it can with Labor expected to make gains.

Meanwhile Labor leader Anthony Albanese is touring marginal seats in Queensland, a state where Labor had a horrible performance in the 2019 election. He is putting the focus on assistance to people rebuilding after natural disasters and highlighting the government's perceived failures in preparing and responding to environmental disasters.

NewsPoll shows neither party gaining

Fresh polling shows both Labor and the Coalition losing primary votes after the first campaign week.

Newspoll results published in The Australian on Monday night show 36 per cent would vote Labor, down one point from 37 per cent on April 10.

The Coalition's primary vote support fell by the same margin, dropping from 36 per cent to 35 in the same period, to April 18.

The personal satisfaction rating for Mr Albanese dropped significantly from minus three to minus 14 while Mr Morrison’s improved slightly from minus 12 to minus 9.

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