Brownie's weather: Melbourne Cup Day forecast
Seven's meteorologist David Brown provides a weather outlook for Melbourne Cup Day.
The race that stops a nation is closing in fast and many of you who enjoy wearing a skirt and open-toed shoes are probably wondering what the weather will be like on the day trackside.
Well I have some news that might help you with that all important wardrobe decision.
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The Melbourne Cup has been running almost as long as Melbourne's weather records.
Handy if you believe the weather is cyclic. Nonetheless I am sure many of you are aware that late spring is a turbulent time of year across the southern half of Australia, in particular the southeast corner of the nation.
Drilling a little deeper, history reveals that in November in Melbourne almost anything goes weatherwise!
Maximum temperatures have varied from an icy 11C in 1913 to a searing 41C in 1894.
Rainfall - like temperature - has varied significantly too, from a dusty 6.5mm in 1895 to a flooding 206mm in 1954.
Rain of some sort falls on 12 days during the month, be it passing drizzle or torrential downpours.
Surprisingly, rain is a frequent visitor to Flemington on Cup Day.
About one in three race-days are affected by a teasing drop or two, flash flooding or something in between.
The race has been postponed on two occasions, 1870 and 1916 due to heavy rain that made the track unsafe.
However rain during the race itself is far less frequent. On average it has rained once in every 10 years.
Cup Day can be a sizzler. The highest temperature recorded was 35.1C in 1901, but on the wet and wintry Cup day of 1913, when it snowed on the Dandenong Ranges, the temperature struggled to reach 11C.
In more recent times, in fact over the past decade the maximum temperature has ranged from 15.8C in 2006 to 30.7C in 2005. Five events were sunny, the other cloudy.
In fact 2004 was a shocker! A line of thunderstorms ripped across the track just before the big race. A dust storm preceded the torrential downpour and hail that sent thousands ducking for cover.
Two years ago during the royal visit, the day was plagued by passing showers and a rather cool southerly wind.
In 2010, jockeys were covered in mud. It felt like mid-July. A turbulent decade indeed, but that's Flemington in November.
So a reliable weather forecast two weeks from the big race would be a god send not only for budding race goers but for the people behind the scenes who make the event such a success.
Unfortunately such a thing does not exist! Weather systems this time of year are highly unstable and a forecast beyond 7 days is like putting your house on a long shot.
So what to wear? I'm no fashion stylist but what I have seen track side over the years is that it's all about layers.
A clear plastic poncho which you can store in your bag or pocket not only keeps you dry but it'll keep your warm too as some unforeseen storm front rips across the track.
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