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The Big-Name Tories Who Could Lose Their Seats At The General Election

Jacob Rees-Mogg is among the top Conservatives who could find themselves out of the Commons after the election.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is among the top Conservatives who could find themselves out of the Commons after the election. Leon Neal via Getty Images

Yet another opinion poll has predicted that the Tories are heading for catastrophe at the general election.

The YouGov survey for The Times, published last night, suggested that Labour is on course to win more than 400 seats, with the Conservatives left with just 155.

That came hard on the heels of a Survation poll at the weekend which said the Tories could be left with fewer than 100 seats as the party is virtually wiped out across the country.

Such results would inevitably lead to a number of well-known Conservative MPs losing their seats.

Here, HuffPost UK looks at the big-name Tories who face being booted out of the Commons.

Jacob Rees-Mogg

The 54-year-old has been the MP for North East Somerset since 2010 and retained the seat with a healthy 14,729 majority at the last election.

Nevertheless, the latest YouGov poll suggests he is currently trailing his Labour rival with the next election just months away.

Rees-Mogg, an arch-Brexiteer who served in both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss’ cabinets, would be seen as a huge scalp, making him particularly vulnerable to tactical voting.

Jeremy Hunt 

The chancellor’s nervousness about his electoral chances can be seen in the number of posts on X (formerly Twitter) he does highlighting the work he does on behalf of his constituents in South West Surrey, where he has been MP since 2005.

His majority of 8,817 makes him extremely vulnerable if the Tory vote across the country collapses, and the Lib Dems are keen to oust him on election night.

<span class="copyright">Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images</span>
Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images

James Cleverly

On paper, the home secretary should be relatively safe in Braintree, where he has a healthy majority of 24,673.

However, according to Survation, Cleverly is among those at risk of being deposed unless Rishi Sunak can quickly turn around the Conservatives’ fortunes.

<span class="copyright">Carl Court via Getty Images</span>
Carl Court via Getty Images

Grant Shapps

The defence secretary is among those eyeing up the Tory leadership if Sunak is deposed after the election. But according to Survation, he might not even be an MP by then.

Shapps has been the MP for Welwyn Hatfield since 2005, and was re-elected in 2019 with a majority of 10,995.

The seat is 115th on Labour’s list of targets, but a disastrous night for the Conservatives could see it turn red.

<span class="copyright">Carl Court via Getty Images</span>
Carl Court via Getty Images

Penny Mordaunt

Panicking Tory plotters have reportedly lined up the Commons leader to take over from Sunak ahead of the general election in a bid to avert disaster.

But Mordaunt should be concerned with hanging on to her Portsmouth North seat if the polls are to be believed.

She has represented the constituency since 2010 and retained it by more than 15,000 votes in 2019. However, all the indications are that she is vulnerable to a Labour surge next time around.

<span class="copyright">Anadolu via Getty Images</span>
Anadolu via Getty Images

Michael Gove 

Another leading Brexiteer who could be heading for the exit, according to Survation, is Michael Gove.

The levelling up secretary has been the MP for Surrey Heath since 2005 and has a commanding majority of more than 18,000.

But with the polls continuing to forecast doom for the Conservatives, Gove has also been put into the ‘at risk’ category.

Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, Michael Gove speaking during the Scottish Conservative party conference at the Event Complex Aberdeen. Picture date: Saturday March 2, 2024. (Photo by Michal Wachucik/PA Images via Getty Images)
Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, Michael Gove speaking during the Scottish Conservative party conference at the Event Complex Aberdeen. Picture date: Saturday March 2, 2024. (Photo by Michal Wachucik/PA Images via Getty Images) MICHAL WACHUCIK - PA Images via Getty Images

Michelle Donelan

The science secretary is another minister whose previously-healthy majority now looks highly vulnerable.

YouGov say Donelan will lose her  Chippenham seat - which she has held since 2015 and retained in 2019 with a 11,288 majority - if their latest poll is repeated on election night.

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM MARCH 12, 2024: Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology Michelle Donelan leaves 10 Downing Street after attending the weekly Cabinet meeting in London, United Kingdom on March 12, 2024. (Photo credit should read Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

Iain Duncan Smith

The former Tory leader is defending a majority of just 1,262 in Chingford and Woodford Green, making his seat one of Labour top targets.

He has held the seat since 1992, but it will be a major surprise if he manages to hold on next time.

<span class="copyright">DANIEL LEAL via Getty Images</span>
DANIEL LEAL via Getty Images

David TC Davies

Another cabinet minister facing the chop.

The Welsh secretary has a majority of 9,982 in Monmouth, where he has been the MP since 2005.

But according to YouGov, the seat is another one set to fall to Labour at the next election.

<span class="copyright">Anadolu via Getty Images</span>
Anadolu via Getty Images

Er ... Rishi Sunak?

Unbelievably, the prime minister’s own seemingly ultra-safe seat of Richmond in North Yorkshire is yet another that could fall to Labour.

Sunak has been the local MP since 2015, when he replaced William Hague, and has a huge majority of 27,210.

But the Survation poll suggested that even he cannot be completely sure of being re-elected if the Tories’ worst nightmares are confirmed.

HARTLEPOOL, ENGLAND - APRIL 2: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak makes a statement to members of the media during a visit to Aldersyde Day Nursery on April 2, 2024 in Hartlepool, England. Sunak said yesterday that his Government was delivering on its childcare plan, as the first parents in England benefited from taxpayer-funded care for two-year-old's. (Photo by Paul Ellis - WPA Pool/Getty Images)

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