Who's up for the challenge? Best contenders to take over the top job
As the Liberal Party prepares for a possible leadership spill on Tuesday, speculation is mounting over who will have the numbers to replace Tony Abbott.
This afternoon West Australian Liberal MP Luke Simpkins confirmed he will move a spill motion against the prime minister on Tuesday.
The motion will be seconded by fellow WA Liberal Don Randall.
Mr Simpkins said in an email to party colleagues the knighthood for Prince Philip was "the final proof of a disconnection with the people".
"I think we must bring this to a head and test the support of the leadership in the party room," he wrote.
Chief Whip Philip Ruddock also confirmed the Prime Minister indicated the motion would be listed next week.
So who will have the numbers?
Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull have been named as top replacements, but both have reportedly pledged not to challenge.
Earlier today Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop refused to counsel any colleagues considering moving a spill motion.
Mr Turnbull has thrown his full support behind Mr Abbott.
"The prime minister has the support of all members of his government, including me," Mr Turnbull said earlier in the week.
Speculation over the Liberal leadership reached such a pitch yesterday it took a picture of Turnbull on board a train to scotch rumours he and Julie Bishop were meeting at his Sydney home.
@BenFordham you need to improve yr surveillance! I am on the train to Tuggerah. PoliticsinPub Nth Wyong 2nite pic.twitter.com/vc0VKybUAz
— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) February 5, 2015
But the bookies are backing Turnbull at $1.65 compared to Abbott keeping the leadership at $5.00 or Bishop taking on Turnbull at $6.00.
The latest numbers from Sportsbet are:
Will the spill motion be passed?
$1.25 Yes
$4.00 No
Will Abbott be Liberal Leader at the end of next week?
$1.20 No
$3.50 Yes
Who will contest the ballot if there is one?
$1.65 Turnbull unopposed
$5.00 Abbott vs Turnbull
$6.00 Bishop vs Turnbull
$10 Abbott vs Bishop vs Turnbull
$12 Turnbull vs Hockey
$15 Abbott unopposed
$15 Bishop unopposed
$19 Abbott vs Bishop
$21 Abbott vs Bishop vs Hockey
$26 Bishop vs Hockey
$31 Abbott vs Hockey
$41 Hockey Unopposed
Treasurer Joe Hockey also dismissed talk of a leadership spill today, saying Tony Abbott will "absolutely" remain prime minister next week.
Mr Hockey said he knew of no MPs planning to launch a spill motion and declined to speculate on whether Mr Abbott would survive one.
"The only numbers I'm worried about are the budget numbers," he told reporters in Sydney.
It's being reported that sources close to newly-appointed Social Services Minister Scott Morrison will not be contesting the Prime Ministership, or deputy leadership.
Meanwhile, the federal implications of Prime Minister Tony Abbott's absence from the Queensland election campaign became clearer over the weekend, amid reports Mal Brough is being tipped to challenge.
Mr Brough did not refute claims he could be installed as a 'leadership circuit-breaker'.
"Clearly people are talking to each other because we are all interested in doing what's best for the nation", Brough told Fairfax.
He also told Sky News that "conversations are happening".
