Tony Abbott spill: PM faces referendum on leadership; Turnbull expected to challenge if vote succeeds

The leadership of Prime Minister Tony Abbott is hanging in the balance this morning, as Liberal MPs gather to decide whether his position should be opened up to a vote.

The crucial party room meeting has been called to hear a motion to spill the leadership, which will be moved by WA MP Luke Simpkins and seconded by WA colleague Don Randall.

MPs have gathered knowing the dire results of the first Newspoll of the year, showing the Coalition trails Labor 43 per cent to 57 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

Mr Abbott attended the non-denominational church service this morning, traditionally held on the first sitting day of the year, and urged MPs to put the leadership issue behind them as soon as the vote is done.

"As of 9.30 the important thing is to put the internals behind us and get on with being the government that we were elected to be - to clean up Labor's mess and to deliver for the Australian people the economic security and the national security that they deserve," he told waiting media.

"That means a focus on jobs, families and economic growth."

But even some of the Prime Minister's most ardent supporters now believe he is mortally wounded and cannot survive the year.

No-one has yet declared they will stand against Mr Abbott should the motion to spill the positions of party leader and deputy succeed — and no-one will.

The ABC understands the principal pretender, Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull, will not announce a challenge before the 101members of the party meet.

The rationale is simple. In the words of one of Mr Turnbull's supporters: "This is all about Abbott."

"Malcolm did not instigate this or encourage this," the supporter said.

"And he does not want this to be seen as Turnbull vs Abbott."

The MP said the move to spill was a genuine backbench revolution, and the fact that it was so close without anyone running against the Prime Minister was a brutal indicator of how weakened Mr Abbott has become.

If the spill motion succeeds, then it is obvious Mr Turnbull will run.

"He'd be a complete arsehole if he didn't," the MP said.

On Sunday night, it was impossible to get a clear idea of whether the move to spill would stand or fall, with both sides saying it could be close.

"Anyone who tells you they have the numbers in this is lying," one minister said.

The arguments Mr Abbott's supporters are making on his behalf are simply aimed at buying time.

And few of the loyalists believe that — even with more time — Mr Abbott can now improve the Government's fortunes.

Spill comes amid Liberal Party's lowest polling approval in months

MPs in New South Wales fear the crisis in the federal party will bleed into their state's election, which is just six weeks away.

In a telling sign, highly respected NSW senator Arthur Sinodinos declared his support for the spill motion on Sunday.

Senator Sinodinos, a former chief of staff to John Howard, said he believed the party had to "have this discussion", and expressed disappointment the party meeting had been dragged forward by one day.

Mr Abbott's supporters are confident of victory but on Sunday night the Prime Minister conceded he might lose the vote and said the move against him was a "very chastening" experience.

Although executive solidarity had been invoked to bind frontbenchers to his cause, Mr Abbott told ABC News that how they voted in the secret ballot would be "entirely" up to them.

If the 35 members of the executive vote against the spill as a block, only 17 more votes would be needed to defeat it.

Some ministers have complained that pressure has been applied for them to publicly back Mr Abbott, and so far about half of the 34 ministers and parliamentary secretaries have come out to say they would vote against the spill motion.

On Sunday evening Mr Abbott said: "I would expect that if a minister was incapable of supporting the Government, the minister in question would've spoken to me — and none of them have."

"But, nevertheless, this is an opportunity for people to do what they genuinely believe is right for the Government and for the country," he said.

He again warned colleagues not to "look like the Labor Party" and "roll" a prime minister.

Some ministers have told the ABC they have already decided to vote according to their conscience.

PM denies submarine tender is a bargain for party room votes

The Prime Minister was bargaining for his life yesterday in calls to his colleagues, and the price being set by some was high.

Mr Abbott revealed a promise to wavering South Australian MPs that a competitive process would be held to build the nation's next fleet of submarines.

It was an open secret in the defence community that the submarine contract, estimated to be worth between $20 billion and $40 billion, had been slated to go to Japan in an agreement struck directly between Mr Abbott and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe.

That outraged South Australians of all political hues, as it would threaten more than 2,000 jobs at the Adelaide-based shipbuilder ASC, formerly known as the Australian Submarine Corporation.

In an exclusive interview with the ABC, Mr Abbott said he had "always intended" to open up the bids to tender and denied it was a multi-billion-dollar bargain for party room votes.

"We are still a long way from doing this," Mr Abbott said.

"The decision on this needs to be made by the end of the year at the latest. But, nevertheless, it is something which is still evolving, as you'd expect."

But the matter warranted a personal call to SA Liberal senator Sean Edwards.

"The Prime Minister has called me and he has told me this and this is significant news," Senator Edwards said on arrival in Canberra.

Mr Abbott also promised that if he held on to power, his Government would be "different and better this year than we were in every respect last year".

"It's a pretty chastening experience to have a spill motion moved on you after just 16 months in government — a very chastening experience," he said.

"And I am determined that my Government, if it continues after tomorrow, will learn from this experience, will be different and better."

But, if Mr Abbott walks out of the meeting today with anything other than an overwhelming endorsement of his leadership, many in his party believe he will not lead them to the next election.