Why Essex County has seen so much fog recently — and an 'anomaly' of school bus cancellations

Students in Essex County weren't picked up by their school buses on three consecutive mornings this week because of fog.

While similar strings of cancellations have happened in recent memory when there is inclement winter weather, Chris Arthurs says it's out of the ordinary for this to happen with foggy conditions.

"This is a bit of an anomaly. Regarding fog, we haven't had three days in a row in quite some time," said the general manager at Windsor-Essex Student Transportation Services.

"Going back on our records to 2005 and 2006 … we indicate there is no record of that."

After closely monitoring forecasts, Arthurs says his team of 13 spotters spread across the city and county, driving around as early as 4:30 a.m., assessing and reporting conditions — in conjunction with the school bus operators.

"They each have their own geographical area to drive around and to report to each manager of each bus company. We have many, many bus routes that are criss-crossing throughout the county."

Final decisions on possible cancellations are made and reported by 6 a.m., he says.

That information is then communicated to the school boards, according to Arthurs.

Environment Canada says the Windsor-area is prone to more fog than other places in Ontario because of the water that surrounds many parts of the area. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

Stephen Fields, spokesperson for the Windsor-Essex Catholic District School Board, says they then work with local media and post information to social media and on their website.

"The first thing, obviously, that we want to do is get the word out and let people know. The last thing you want is having kids sitting there, waiting at bus stops for a bus that isn't going to come."

Fields says this week's consecutive cancellations were unique, and some families may have been taken off guard.

He says attendance numbers at schools were low on Tuesday, but grew Wednesday into Thursday.

"I think what happens is, on the first day, parents might be willing to kind of let things slide a little bit, They're thinking that it's only going to be one day," he said.

"I think by day two, people are saying, 'Okay, I think you should be getting to school.' Then by day three, it's like, 'We've had enough. You're going to school today.'"

Windsor-Essex Student Transportation Services assesses weather conditions and determines, along with school bus providers, if buses will be cancelled. (Francis Ferland/CBC)

According to Fields, fog day attendance is similar to what schools see on slippery road or snow days.

"People are going to make their decisions based on safety first. We don't want people to be putting themselves in any kind of risky situations in order to get to school."

He says senior administration within the local Catholic board huddled after the second morning of cancellations this week.  Families were then notified that "meaningful work" was being added to students' online Google classrooms, he added, no matter if they were in class or not.

Why all the fog?

It's most common for foggy conditions in this part of Canada in the late summer and fall, according to Environment Canada meteorologist Steven Flisfeder.

"What happens is we have warm, fairly humid days, and when we get to clear sky conditions at night, what happens is the temperatures really cool down, but that moisture doesn't go anywhere."

Flisfeder says it's mainly the cooling down of warm, moist air that helps the condensation process, resulting in the formation of fog.

"Add to that the very calm winds, so it wouldn't be blowing that moist air away, keeping it all localized in one area."

Environment Canada says the fall in most parts of Canada is normally the prime time of year for fog. (Kate Bueckert/CBC)

Places such as the Windsor area are more prone to fog developing, he says, than other parts of Ontario, because of the amount of moisture in the air from being so close to Lake Erie and St. Clair. That, coupled with even more ambient moisture coming in from the U.S. south.

"Because of the overall pattern we have right now, where it's a high-pressure system dominating over the southern part of the province, it's kind of a persistent forecast where we have these warm, clear days and those clear nights continue, which really helps with the fog formation."

However, the local student transportation team says what they saw this week had nothing to do with "lake-effect fog."

"This is an interior county fog," said Arthurs.

"We noticed a lot of west of Kingsville, McGregor, Comber, Woodslee, Essex, south of the 401 in Tecumseh, Belle River ... Amherstburg. Kind of a very interior county [fog] outside of the town urban centres where it was dense."

Transportation officials say in the past school buses could be delayed to see if conditions would improve. (Shutterstock)

He says many of the county routes their buses travel on work their way in toward the schools.

"I would say you're looking at 50 to 75 per cent of school bus routes were starting with this fog, and it just presents a safety hazard."

According to Flisfeder, unlike many other weather conditions, fog can be more difficult to predict.

"We don't know necessarily how thick the fog will be. We don't know how long it will remain in place. Our fog advisory criteria is such that it has to be foggy for … a six-hour period."

Delays instead of cancellations?

Arthurs says although it was a practice in the 1990's, he's unsure if switching back to the option of delaying routes until later in the morning to see if conditions improve would be ideal.

"It really is a novel idea, but school bus driving is a part-time job, and many of the drivers have other commitments in between school runs, which would not allow for all the school bus routes to be serviced with an early start nowadays."

He adds delayed starts could also prove difficult to coordinate and possibly produce "mass confusion" trying to time bus pickups — and the start and end times for schools.

Fields says the local Catholic school board would be open to mulling over alternatives.

"If there were some creative ideas out there that were to be discussed between our colleagues at the transportation consortium, and of course our colleagues at the other school boards, we'd be willing to have those discussions about what might be done."