What La Niña means for Aussie weather over Christmas and New Year
Meteorologists predict millions of us will now likely avoid an intense summer drenching.
There is good news for those fearing a wet, cool summer typical of a La Niña weather pattern as the latest key indicators now suggest a fourth such event for Australia in just five years will be "short-lived", if it arrives at all.
Meteorologists first raised concerns about another very wet summer in May, meaning Aussies may be battling floods rather than basking in sunshine. La Niña weather events mean increased rainfall and cooler temperatures for most of Australia. The country endured La Niñas from 2020 to 2023 and with it came wet summers and horrific floods including those that devastated Lismore in 2022.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) on Tuesday announced there are increasingly more signs that a La Niña won't eventuate, but higher than average rainfall is still predicted for eastern parts of the country over the summer.
"Two [weather] models... are likely to exceed the La Niña threshold throughout December to February, which is sufficient time to be classified as a La Niña event, though this would be considered a very short-lived event compared to the historical record," the BoM said.
Where weather forecasts stand at the moment, there is no indication that this will change after February — meaning we're likely in the clear by the time March hits.
Sea surface temperatures at 'near-record' levels this week
While it's good news the threatening conditions of a La Niña will largely be avoided this summer, the BoM notes global sea surface temperatures remain at near-record levels as the impact of climate change rears its head. The sea temperatures have just fallen short of record temperatures observed last year but above all other years since records began — with BoM noting their observations since 1854.
Many Aussies are this week are sweltering with a heatwave warning for NSW and many northern states such as Queensland and Western Australia set to experience temperatures in the 30s this week.
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First cyclone of the season brewing off Aussie coast
Meteorologists have identified the first likely tropical cyclone of the season which is currently a tropical low near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. There is a moderate risk of it entering the Australian region on Thursday as Tropical Cyclone Robyn.
The country usually experiences between nine and eleven cyclones over the season. However, weather forecasting will become increasingly more difficult for meteorologists as records are smashed and unprecedented events occur, with climate indictors made possible largely due to seasonal weather patterns.
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