Week 16 Player Props
Minty Bets and Matt Harmon offer up their favorite player props for Week 16.
Video transcript
MATT HARMON: Yes, let's dive in. We've got some really good ones to talk about. Minty, some really-- I mean, it's just such a weird slate of games, obviously, with so much going on here in the NFL.
But let's try to give four player props who we think can help the people out. Let's go with your first one, which, I'm hoping this does not come true and that you are not right about this, but please tell me why. Why you are down on Josh Allen here?
MINTY BETS: Yeah, so for my player props, I'm going with a pair of Josh's, both of them with last names that could double as first names as well. First one, Josh Allen under 21 and 1/2 past completions at plus 105. Last time he paced-- Paced. Last time he faced the Patriots he only completed 15 passes of 30 attempts.
Now New England's defense allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete only 58% of passes, recording some of the fewest or the most interceptions and allowing some of the fewest touchdowns. I think Josh Allen is going to have a tough time against the Patriots today. So I like the under for that plus money.
MATT HARMON: I'm really hoping, again, that you're wrong about this one, Minty, but I never like to disagree with you. Now one that I really like this week is Kyle Pitts over 47 and 1/2 receiving yards. He's cleared this number in back to back games.
But more than anything, I think this is the week that Kyle Pitts finally has that big eruption game. Obviously, the match-up is right, against the Detroit Lions. We kind of act as if Kyle Pitts, oh, he's having this bad season because he's not scoring touchdowns, and that's true.
1.1% touchdown rate, that is sixth lowest among the top 50 scoring fantasy tight ends. That just says to me that we're going to have some positive regression coming here soon because the guy is top five in targets and yards, and even yards per target among all tight ends this year. I think this is the week where he reminds us that he's one of the most talented players at his position. I think he gets in the end zone and I think he easily clears this 47 and 1/2 receiving yards up.
MINTY BETS: Yeah, 47 and 1/2 is like a sweet spot number, because it could really go either way. But facing Detroit today, I mean, that defense is pretty inconsistent. So I think Kyle Pitts could have a pretty big day. My next player prop is going to be on Josh Jacobs, under 3 and 1/2 receptions.
A little bit juiced at minus 125, but Jacobs has had four or more catches in five of his last seven games. But in his last two games against the Broncos, he's recorded only one reception each. Now, Denver's defense is ranked seventh in fewest passing yards allowed per game. So I can see Derek Carr hand the ball off a little more than not. So I'm going under, this number here.
MATT HARMON: Yeah, Josh Jacobs receiving workload, always extremely weird, extremely hard to project. It's just a strange development, basically his entire career there with the Raiders. All right, for my last one here, I'm going Justin Jefferson, over on a big number, 82 and 1/2 receiving yards.
Again, I know that's high. He's been pummeled with volume in the last couple of weeks with Adam Thielen out. However, with just a 44% catch rate, I actually think having Thielen back could be good news for Justin Jefferson. He's at 11 catches for 126 yards those two games without Adam Thielen.
It's been good because he's scored twice in fantasy, but 11 catches for 126 yards, he had 11 catches for like 180 yards the game prior to losing ahead of Thielen. So he can have this number all in his own. I think, again, having Adam Thielen back will allow this offense to move the ball a little better. Teams, especially against the Bears last week, were just like, we're going to bracket Justin Jefferson.
He's not going to be the guy that's going to sting us too much. With Thielen back there, I think, again, that's going to erase that pressure on Justin Jefferson. Still going to get a ton of targets and I think will be more efficient with them this week to clear this line.
MINTY BETS: Yeah, interesting take there, you think that Adam Thielen coming back will allow Kirk Cousins to spread the ball out more. I like it though. I'll be with you on the over here, even though it is set pretty high at 82.5. But I'm with you, Matt.
MATT HARMON: Set very high for a very highly regarded player, Justin Jefferson. Well, we will be back later, "Yahoo Sportsbook Live". 11:30 AM Pacific, 2:30 PM Eastern. You better come back here because we're going to be covering everything from the prop bets that we like, to some of the live bets that are going on, as the show, it will be live.
So listen, a lot to talk about. Again, it is a very, very weird week, but we're going to enjoy, we're going to break it all down. So make sure you come back and send your questions in on social media. We hope to see later.
