Andy Behrens, Matt Harmon and Tank Williams offer up their favorite player props for Week 10.
MATT HARMON: It's time for Bring the Props. The drill we each discuss a favorite NFL prop bet and then decide if we like the over or the under. My last few weeks have been a lesson, an exercise in humility. I'm letting Tank Williams catch up to me. How embarrassing is that. Tank, because I'm such a good guy, because I'm so generous, I'm going to let you start here today, Tank. Why don't you get us rolling?
TANK WILLIAMS: Well, because you're such a good guy, and you're so generous, and because I love you so much, I picked the player that you just adore. And that's Joshua Palmer, over 4 and 1/2 receptions. I mean because I've heard you talk about him on social media. I know that he's a stud athlete. I know whenever you grade him out on your Reception Perception, that he's off the charts.
And so now this is a guy who's had 22 targets, 17 receptions, 163 yards in the last two weeks. He's probably going to be playing with a negative game script against those San Francisco 49ers. So tell me are you willing to fade me, Joshua Palmer over 4 and 1/2 receptions this week?
MATT HARMON: I am not. Despite my opinions about the player, this little short dink and dunk Chargers offense, running so much, stick, speed outs, little tiny hitches, Josh Palmer can rack up at least five catches on those, especially without obviously Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. So, no, Tank. I'm with you. I'm taking the over on this. Andy, are we going to make it a sweep?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah. I'm taking the over as well. Palmer last week, kind of a catch and fall guy, right? Didn't do a whole lot after the catch. But still, he's going to get peppered with targets. He's seen double digit targets in each of his last two games. So I to go over here.
MATT HARMON: All right well I'll talk about an actual, really talented young wide receiver that I still feel like people don't really understand how good Chris Olave is at the game right now. This guy runs routes like a 10 year pro. Just finished his Reception Perception sample.
Now that's an all green route tree, Tank. This guy gets open at all three levels, does everything you want him to do. Again, 10 year pro. He's so technically advanced for a rookie wide receiver. And the Saints know it too. He hasn't gone under 26% targets per route run since week one.
With all these injuries, yeah, that's part of it, but it's just how good Chris Olave is. And I know that he hasn't had that explosive game of late. But the Steelers are one of five teams that have allowed 70 plus explosive plays on the year, most of that coming through the air. So I'm taking the over on the 62 and 1/2 receiving yards for Chris Olave. Tank, are we on the same side on this one?
TANK WILLIAMS: This is like tough for me. Because I just talked about the Pittsburgh Steelers defense, TJ Watt coming back. But I also mentioned that Minkah Fitzpatrick is going to be out of that one. And that's one guy who likes to prevent those deep passes, even though it didn't really help with Gabe Davis.
But then also he's on my fantasy lineup. And so can I really go against this dude when I really need him to score for me this week? I think not. I like to hate on my man Harmon, but in this situation, I have to have self-preservation, so I'm going over.
MATT HARMON: See, we're not necessarily gambling betting experts here. But we do know how to have you bargain with things. Like that's what this is all about, right, Andy. Well, it's this, but also this. But he's on my fantasy team. That's what we're really good at helping with. But Andy, can we make it a sweep with this one as well?
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah listen, I would love to separate myself from you guys in this contest, but I have a recklessly aggressive forecast for Chris Olave coming up later in the show. I think he goes way over this total. It is an extremely friendly matchup against Pittsburgh. No team has been more generous to opposing wide receivers than the Steelers. I think Olave is in for a huge day, triple digit yardage for sure.
MATT HARMON: Yeah, as you mentioned, Andy, I'm on the road here in Virginia Beach. My mom and my sister are both downstairs. They both have Chris Olave on their fantasy team. So if he doesn't go over this number, I'm going to be in a lot of trouble anyway, so I might as well just make it a clean sweep for pain. Andy, give us your last prop here.
ANDY BEHRENS: I am running it back with Justin Fields, and I'm taking the over on his rushing yardage at 57 and 1/2. 57 and 1/2?
MATT HARMON: It's a lot.
ANDY BEHRENS: He just went over this by 120 yards. He has 408 rushing yards in his last four games. It's been a while since he's been under this total. Basically, we're getting a half dozen designed runs for Fields each week. He's taken off another six to eight times, each like, he's going to finish this season-- you heard Dalton.
He's going to finish this season over 1,100 rushing yards. That's the pace he's on right now. I think he clears 60 easy. He might do it in the first half.
TANK WILLIAMS: Man, well, if I have to talk about this guy, like the tear that he's been on like the past few weeks, dog, I mean, we've been talking about Kenneth Walker being like the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Like this guy is like pushing in just the damn three game stretch.
It's unbelievable what he's been able to do on the field in this short amount of time. So I think, that being said, and looking at the numbers that he's just compiled recently, it's hard for me to fade this dude. I got to go with the over too.
MATT HARMON: I mean, strategically, talk about the bargaining, like there's really doesn't make any sense for me to go under on this one. And like, what would the line have to be for us to take the under on Justin Fields' rushing yards at this point? Would it be 60? Would it be in the 60s, the 70s? I don't know. I will go over and make it a full weekly sweep here.
Which brings us to the standings here entering week 10. Tank.
ANDY BEHRENS: Oh my God, unbelievable.
MATT HARMON: Tank, with the sweep last week.
TANK WILLIAMS: I just noticed that. But I'm in first place, so go figure.
MATT HARMON: I mean, first place, we're all even here. Just because you're over there, that doesn't matter. Your name is not highlighted in yellow.
TANK WILLIAMS: Who's box is in front. They put my box in front, which means that I'm in first place. And if you're not first, you're last. If you're not first, you're last.
MATT HARMON: Your name is not highlighted in yellow, OK? That's what matters. That was previously my spot. I'm going to get it back up there. But again, we're all even at this point. We're all even.
ANDY BEHRENS: That is pretty harsh, moving Harmon to the far right.