Warren Buffett’s Nebraska Becomes Sudden Political Battleground
(Bloomberg) -- Nebraska wasn’t on anyone’s election-year bingo card but Warren Buffett’s home state is quickly emerging as a battleground for party control of Congress and perhaps even the White House.
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Shifting political dynamics in the solidly Republican state have put at least one Senate and one House race in play, as Democrats also mount a bid to claim one of the state’s Electoral College votes in the presidential election even as Donald Trump holds a solid lead over Kamala Harris statewide.
Here’s what to watch:
Fischer in Fight
Republican Senator Deb Fischer’s third term is far from a certainty as independent Dan Osborn, a union leader, mounts a formidable challenge.
The latest SurveyUSA poll of the state shows Fischer holds just a 1 percentage point lead in the race with more than 20% of voters undecided — a number that rarely bodes well for the incumbent.
The Senate map isn’t favorable for Democrats and picking up a seat in a Republican stronghold — should the independent choose to caucus with them — would be a major victory and boost their odds of holding onto their narrow majority.
House Hopes
Republican Don Bacon, a leading House moderate representing the Omaha area, trails in that same poll by 6 percentage points to Democrat Tony Vargas, a state senator and the same opponent he defeated in 2022.
On Friday, the non-partisan Cook Political Report moved Bacon’s rematch to “toss-up,” reflecting Vargas’ growing popularity among voters.
Democrats need a net pick-up of just five House seats nationally — not counting vacancies that opened up since the last election — to take the chamber’s majority.
Blue Dot
Nebraska divvies up three of its five Electoral College votes based on the winner in each congressional district, giving outsize importance to the “blue dot” of Omaha.
Joe Biden won the district in 2020. Trump won in 2016. Utah Senator Mitt Romney took it as a presidential candidate in 2012. And former President Barack Obama won in 2008.
Omaha’s lone vote would clinch the presidency for Harris if she wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but none of the other battlegrounds, and holds all the reliable Democratic states.
Both the Harris and Trump campaigns have boosted their presence and other activities in the area, where some polls show Harris leading Trump.
Motivated Voters
Aside from deciding on the candidates, Nebraskans will vote on two dueling constitutional amendments on abortion, an issue that has particularly mobilized Democratic voters in the first presidential election cycle since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
An initiative legalizing medical marijuana use now appears to have enough signatures to make the ballot, another factor that has been distinctly in Democrats’ favor.
Osborn, the independent Senate candidate, opposes a federal abortion ban and supports legalizing marijuana, both issues that have shown broad crossover appeal even in Republican states.
Walz Factor
Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, grew up on a farm in Nebraska. That, combined with his longtime championing of agriculture issues, could go a long way with voters in the state.
During his six terms in Congress, Walz helped write three farm bills. As governor, he has advocated for policies aimed at boosting crop-based renewable fuels like corn ethanol.
“You can take the man out of Nebraska ... but you can’t take Nebraska out of the man,” Gwen Walz, the governor’s wife, said while attending an event in Omaha with her husband in August.
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