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Ads reveal pathway to success for 'yes', 'no' campaigns

Diego Fedele/AAP PHOTOS

New analysis has revealed where the 'yes' and 'no' campaigns see their path to victory at the voice referendum.

NSW, Victoria and South Australia are receiving the bulk of targeted 'yes' campaign ads while the 'no' side appears to be favouring Queensland, Western Australia and SA.

Analysis of Meta advertising spend and audience reach across its platforms Facebook and Instagram shows that a quarter of some Yes23 posts were targeted towards Victoria, while 24 per cent of Liberals for Yes hit the same state.

SA came in at 17 per cent and 21 per cent respectively.

The 'yes' campaign ads are also popping up in the feeds of younger people more often, with about 40 per cent of the Yes23 posts' reach hitting Australians between the ages of 18 and 44, and the majority going towards those between 25 and 33.

This corresponds with numerous polls putting support for the referendum at its highest among younger people.

Of the ads launched in September after the referendum date was officially announced, Yes23 put about $50,000 towards a post calling for "constitutional recognition after 65,000 years".

A further $35,000 to $45,000 was put into a post about Indigenous children in Hope Vale learning their traditional language across two versions.

Cathy Freeman's new ad for Yes23 supporting the Indigenous advisory body flooded Victoria, followed by NSW and Queensland, on its first day, and mainly hit people under 54 on Wednesday, its first day running.

On the flip side, Queensland made up a third of the 'no' linked Save Australia Day Facebook page, while NSW made up a quarter.

The reach mainly targeted people over 55, where polls reveal support is struggling.

An Advance Australia-linked Referendum News page targeted younger people in SA with a post referring to "a leftist Aboriginal" outlining the 'no' case rather than the threat to Australia Day message that targeted Baby Boomers.

For Fair Australia - associated with the 'no' campaign - the posts inundated the swing state of SA (42 per cent), while the age spread remained relatively even between age groups over 25.

A second Fair Australia ad hit the traditionally more conservative states of Queensland and WA, with views increasing with age brackets.

Spending for the page's posts, which included a video of prominent Indigenous 'no' campaigner NT Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, has totalled about $100,000.

The data isn't conclusive with social media being favoured by younger people and both campaigns employing a range of tactics, including doorknocking, to win support.

Meta also uses an estimate spend calculator, so figures may vary.

For a referendum to succeed, it needs a majority of votes in four of the six states as well as a majority of all Australians.

The two territories - only included in the total vote and not the first hurdle - consistently came towards the bottom.

The analysis broadly corresponds with polls and comments from both campaigns, with published data showing support for the voice tracking backward in every state, and faring worst in Queensland and WA.

With support in Tasmania remaining above 50 per cent, NSW, Victoria and SA are seen as the battleground states with support fluctuating - but trending downwards - to just under half, including in polls that include an "undecided" option.

The referendum will be held on October 14, with remote voting due to start on Monday.