AFL Grand Final preview: Sydney and Hawthorn meet for second time in three years, with Swans favoured to beat Hawks

It comes down to this, a replay of the 2012 grand final between the two undoubted best teams in the AFL, Hawthorn and the Sydney Swans.

No pressure or anything, but it would be great if the two sides could produce a decider as dramatic as the one two years ago, if our hearts could stand the strain of it.

The memories come flooding back - Adam Goodes kicking a vital goal on one good knee, the Hawks' Luke Hodge courageous with his head bandaged like a mummy after being cut open earlier in the game.

The endless stoppages in the dying minutes, with the Swans trying to hold the ball in and the ferocious Hawks desperately seeking the break that could get them in front.

Finally, as the final 60 seconds play out, the ball tumbles out to Nick Malceski, and the bearded Swan snaps a high wobbler over his shoulder to drop between the posts and seal victory.

Lance Franklin was left in tears after that game, and he cried again for different reasons 12 months later as the Hawks won the flag over Fremantle in his final game for the club.

Now the man who won the 2014 Coleman Medal and finished four points off a win in the Brownlow stands between his old team and another precious title win.

The game brings together the number one attacking team in the league in Hawthorn (110.5 points a game) against the number one defensive side in Sydney (67.3 points a game).

There was a similar match-up in 2012, but the difference since then is Sydney's extra attacking potential, thanks to the so-called "Bondi Billionaires".

Franklin, Goodes (who will be playing in his 351st and possibly last match for the Swans), Kurt Tippett and Sam Reid make up a fearsome attack.

Against the Kangaroos in the preliminary final, Sydney had 69 inside 50s to just 44 for the visitors, and the Swans racked up 27 marks inside 50 to nine for the Roos.

The Hawks backline, including Brian Lake, Josh Gibson, Matt Spangher and Ben Stratton, will match up better than most on the Sydney forward line, but if the Swans get the ball in that many times this weekend, it is hard to see Hawthorn repelling enough attacks to win.

For Alastair Clarkson's men, it will be vital to stop the Swans in their tracks further up the ground.

The Hawks dominated the hit outs, clearances, centre clearances and stoppages against Port Adelaide - this weekend it will be David Hale and Ben McEvoy feeding the likes of Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Liam Shiels, Shaun Burgoyne and captain Luke Hodge when he rotates through the centre.

Speedsters Isaac Smith, Paul Puopolo and Bradley Hill will be crucial to getting the ball clear of Sydney's strangling defensive pressure in the middle.

Aside from his leadership skills, Hodge will also be critical for Hawthorn, bringing the ball out of defence and even giving the Hawks a helping hand in the ruck when needed.

This will be a ferocious grand final, with Mitchell, Shiels, Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy all likely to be tackling like demons when the ball is to be won.

Sydney's midfield is elite with Kennedy, Parker, Kieren Jack, Daniel Hannebery and Ben McGlynn, plus the availability of young Harry Cunningham to do a lockdown job similar to the one he did on North Melbourne's Brent Harvey in the preliminary final.

Parker has improved out of sight since his grand final appearance two years ago. Then he was an interchange player, now he is a damaging midfielder who wins contested ball, tackles hard and kicks important goals.

Hawks' clearance work a threat to Swans' hopes

The Hawks are a brilliant side and at their best they can overwhelm opponents with quick incisive attacks that cut apart defences and add quick goals.

If Hawthorn wins the clearances again, then it will be the Sydney defence with the two Nicks, - Smith and Malceski - the under-rated Dean Rampe, veteran Ted Richards, Rhyce Shaw and Heath Grundy who will be feeling the pressure.

If Sydney has the tall timber, Hawthorn has almost the perfect mix in the front six with Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston and David Hale offering marking targets, and in Luke Breust the top crumbing forward in the AFL.

There are many players who could play key roles in the decider, but for the Hawks the big questions will be over Lewis and Cyril Rioli.

Lewis, who has been in a rich vein of form in the midfield, was subbed out of the prelim at three quarter-time with a severe corked thigh. He has been selected in the squad after insisting he is fit, but the question remains whether he will be 100 per cent for the big game.

The other dilemma for Clarkson was whether to pull the trigger and pick Rioli, who has also been named despite only playing three quarters at less than full pace in the VFL grand final in his first game since round 15 with a hamstring injury.

The most likely outcome is that the Hawks will use Rioli as a second half sub to come in as a game-changer when players are beginning to tire.

It is a big risk, but the Hawks know that Rioli is more than capable of winning the game off his own bat if he is up for the challenge. On the Swans side, the pair of Lewis Jetta and Gary Rohan could make a big difference on the open spaces of the MCG.

Both men have serious pace and are vital to the creative side of Sydney - in particular Rohan, who seems back to his best after a long recovery from a broken leg, could be extremely dangerous with his ability to burst free off half-back, go inside 50 and set up goals.

Then of course there is Franklin, who has energised the Sydney attack with his ability to go down the ground and create space for Tippett, his defensive pressure and his spectacular team-lifting goals.

He likes the big occasion, and nothing would give him more pleasure than stamping his authority on the big game against his former club.

Stopping him is not enough on its own, but if they achieve this it will be a good start for the Hawks.

Taking opportunities the key to victory

Two of the keys that could decide the game are disposal efficiency and kicking accuracy.

Hawthorn is the best technical side in the AFL for disposal efficiency and even with the intensity of a grand final, they should still be better at hitting targets than the Swans.

The other element is goalkicking. Sydney will create enough chances to win the game, but against the Kangaroos the Swans booted 4.5 in the first quarter when they could have put the match to bed, and they ended up with a score of 19.22.

In contrast, the Hawks kicked 15.7 against Port Adelaide, and their better kicking for goal could make the difference with Breust (54.11 for the season), Roughead (70.42) and Gunston (56.24) all capable of making the Swans pay if they get their chance.

The bottom line is that if the Swans play like they did in the prelim, they will win. However the Hawks are more than good enough not to allow Sydney to dictate terms.

It should be a brilliant match, and it would not surprise if it was as close as 2012, but Franklin and Sydney should have too much in reserve for Hawthorn.

• Prediction: *Swans by 18