US Election: Kamala Harris becomes favourite as major poll deals blow to 'disorientated' Trump

What a difference six weeks makes.

On the evening of Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump at the end of June, speculation was swirling about whether he could really run for the White House again and who else could potentially lead the Democratic party to the 2024 US presidential election.

Despite being Vice President, and the person who currently would take on the job if anything were to happen to Joe Biden, Kamala Harris was an afterthought.

Australian betting agencies had Californian governor Gavin Newsom as a hot favourite. Even former First Lady Michelle Obama (who has never run for office) had better odds than Harris who in the hours after the debate was a $26 long shot to be the next US president.

Today, she is paying just $1.72.

That's right, she is leading Donald Trump as the betting favourite (who the bookies currently have at $2).

She's riding high since the Democrats rallied around her, enjoying the glow of a party reenergised after staring defeat in the face when Joe Biden initially refused to drop out of the race. While that glow will surely fade, fresh poll results released this weekend in key swing states that are set to decide the election provide a strong case for her to be the frontrunner.

Among likely voters, Harris is leading Trump by four percentage points each in separate polls conducted in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The polls, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, show a marked difference from where Biden was in the critical battleground states that will determine who wins the election.

If that holds, Harris will deny Trump a second stint in power.

To become president, a candidate need not win the national popular vote but must win 270 electoral votes. Each state has a number of electoral votes based on its population, making the swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, especially important.

That's why the latest round of polling, as The New York Times declared, shows that "Harris has fundamentally changed the race".

The Trump campaign even released a memo from its chief pollster, Tony Fabrizio, pushing back against the polling results. "Once again, we see a series of public surveys released with the clear intent and purpose of depressing support for President Trump," Fabrizio said.

Harris has raised hundreds of millions of dollars and held rallies with thousands of supporters since becoming the Democratic candidate, regularly eclipsing the smaller events that Biden held and drawing ire from Trump, for whom crowd size has long been an important barometer of political strength.

And the Harris camp are consistently letting him know about it.

Trump 'knocked off his bearings'

After surviving an assassination attempt just weeks ago, and at the time appearing ordained for a return to power, reports from inside the former president's camp say he is struggling to come to terms with the new reality of the race.

An extensive New York Times piece over the weekend claimed to take readers "inside the worst three weeks of Donald Trump's 2024 campaign".

Those close to him reportedly said he'd been "knocked off his bearings" by the new nature of the race and has "found the change disorienting". He has reportedly been trying to find an effective attack line and drum up a new disparaging nickname for his political opponent.

According to the report, Trump has ranted about Harris in private and called her a "bitch", according to two people who told the Times they heard the remark on different occasions. A spokesperson for Trump denied the claims to the newspaper.

The candidates are set to do their first debate on Wednesday, September 11 AEST.

with Reuters

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