US Declares China Travel Safer But Trump Era Brings Uncertainty
(Bloomberg) -- Washington’s decision to ease its travel warning for China removes an obstacle to exchanges of people between the world’s two largest economies but will likely face new scrutiny once Donald Trump returns to the White House.
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The US Department of State announced a shift in its advisory for the Asian nation by reducing it from Level 3 — “reconsider travel” — to Level 2, which asks people to “exercise increased caution.” The downgrade on Wednesday means the US travel warning for China matches the designation for countries like France, Germany and India.
The American Chamber of Commerce in China hailed it as an “excellent development” that will help ease tensions while opening more travel from the US to China. “The Level 3 advisory has served to curtail both business travel, student visits and scholarly exchanges, which are essential for fostering more clear mutual understanding and are vital to healthy normal bilateral relations,” said Roberta Lipson, AmCham China chair.
The announcement coincided with news of a prisoner swap between China and the US that saw the release of three Americans. But the practical impact of the updated travel warning could be negligible and possibly short-lived, with restrictions on flights into the US still in effect and a looming Trump presidency threatening to upend ties again.
“I doubt it will make a difference at all,” said Eric Zhu, senior associate analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. “China has lifted visa requirements for both Japan, South Korea, as well as a list of European countries, but American visitors are still required to get a visa.”
The previous advisory level had been a sticking point for China in its relations with the US, with many seeing it as a barrier to people-to-people exchanges — long a priority for Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The change was greeted with praise from China on Thursday.
“We believe this is conducive to the normal exchange of personnel between the two countries,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a regular press briefing in Beijing. “We always oppose creating chilling effects and we hope the US will provide more facilitation for the cultural and people-to-people exchanges between the two countries.”
Biden’s Housekeeping
The US had been clear that the travel designation would remain elevated until issues surrounding arbitrarily detained Americans were resolved, according to Joe Mazur, senior analyst with consultancy Trivium China.
“Taken together with the recent US-China prisoner swap, it suggests that Biden administration officials are conducting some end-of-term housekeeping with their Chinese counterparts,” Mazur said.
A spokesperson for the US Embassy in Beijing said language related to risks of wrongful detention had been removed. “There are no longer any Americans who have been determined as wrongfully detained who are being held” in China, the spokesperson said in an email to Bloomberg News.
As recently as in September, a bipartisan US congressional commission said China has detained more Americans than any other country in the world, warning their cases remain “a pressing diplomatic concern.” Marco Rubio — Trump’s pick for secretary of state who’s been sanctioned twice by Beijing — co-chaired the Congressional-Executive Commission on China.
The earlier advisory was a factor inhibiting travel by some Americans to China, with knock-on effects on demand for travel-related services including flights.
China’s carriers continue to operate under severe restrictions on flights into the US, with a cap limiting the number of services to around 25% of pre-Covid levels or 50 round-trips each shared among the country’s respective airlines.
According to the latest advisory, American citizens should still “exercise increased caution” when traveling to mainland China due to arbitrary enforcement of local laws, including in relation to exit bans.
Zhu Junwei, a former researcher in the People’s Liberation Army who is now director of American research at Grandview Institution in Beijing, described the move as “good news” that will help promote exchanges between Chinese and American people. But the bigger issue is what happens next.
“The question is how long it will stay at this level before another possible change after Trump formally comes into office,” she said.
--With assistance from Danny Lee, Alisa Parenti and Philip Glamann.
(Updates with Foreign Ministry comment in seventh paragraph.)
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