TrueCar and ALG Forecast New and Used Vehicle Sales for September 2020 and the Third Quarter

In this article:

TrueCar and ALG Forecast New and Used Vehicle Sales for September 2020 and the Third Quarter

Total Sales Change, Difference Year-over-Year
Total Sales Change, Difference Year-over-Year
Total Sales Change, Difference Year-over-Year
  • New vehicle sales continue to recover from April lows forecast as retail sales increase 27% quarter-over-quarter adjusted for selling days

  • Used vehicle sales forecast to be up year-over-year for fourth consecutive month

  • Average Transaction Prices are expected to increase 3.5% year-over-year

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 25, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TrueCar, Inc., and its ALG, Inc. subsidiary, project total new vehicle sales will reach 1,221,092 units in September 2020, down 12% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.8 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar and ALG expect U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,111,397 units, a decrease of 6% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 3.5% or $1,223 from a year ago and up 0.4% or $156 from August 2020. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach more than $44 billion for September 2020, down 0.7% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 7.1% from last month.

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/101520bc-b933-4d1d-b298-054183cee4bd

“The automotive industry continues to perform better than initially expected with retail sales down just six percent compared with last year. We’re also seeing one of the best SAARs since March and used vehicles forecast to be up year-over-year for the fourth consecutive month,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG. “From a quarterly perspective, new vehicle retail sales are up 27% and used vehicle sales are up 26% quarter over quarter.”

“Large truck sales continue to spike as many consumers gravitate toward home improvement projects to enrich their home environment where they are also working and spending more of their leisure time,” added Lyman.

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG and TrueCar)

  • Total retail sales for September 2020 are expected to be down 6% from a year ago and down 4% from August 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

  • Fleet sales for September 2020 are expected to be down 45% from a year and up 0.2% from August 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 13% from a year ago from 17.1 million units to 14.8 million units.

  • Used vehicle sales for September 2020 are expected to reach 3.8 million, up 11% from a year ago and down 1% from August 2020.

  • The average interest rates on new vehicles are 5.7% and the average interest rates on used vehicles are 8.2%.

“Inventory levels are still low for certain popular models across brands as supply continues to play catch up from production pauses a few months ago. That being said, brands with a fresh lineup of diverse inventory of in-demand SUVs, such as Hyundai, are seeing some of the highest jumps in retail sales and average transaction prices year-over-year,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar.

“For this quarter, we are seeing certain automakers make significant increases in retail market share, which is difficult in such a competitive industry. Both Kia and Hyundai have jumped in retail share with successful launches into popular segments that are resonating with consumers,” added Woolard. “Electric vehicle maker Tesla has also made one of the biggest jumps in retail market share, thanks to its popular Model 3 and the newly released Model Y, which continue Tesla’s sales momentum.”

Quarterly Insights: (Forecast by ALG and TrueCar)

  • Total unit sales for Q3 are expected to be down 14% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 28% from Q2 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

  • Total retail sales for Q3 are expected to be down 10% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 27% from Q2 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

September 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom and TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Sep 2020 Forecast

Sep 2019 Actual

Aug 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

26,325

31,100

25,235

-15.4

%

-22.1

%

4.3

%

8.5

%

Daimler

25,031

32,002

23,966

-21.8

%

-28.0

%

4.4

%

8.6

%

FCA

167,138

181,221

171,519

-7.8

%

-15.1

%

-2.6

%

1.3

%

Ford

180,050

173,333

184,781

3.9

%

-4.4

%

-2.6

%

1.3

%

GM

204,004

209,658

218,845

-2.7

%

-10.5

%

-6.8

%

-3.1

%

Honda

106,544

113,925

135,925

-6.5

%

-14.0

%

-21.6

%

-18.5

%

Hyundai

56,916

53,510

59,721

6.4

%

-2.1

%

-4.7

%

-0.9

%

Kia

46,256

44,619

57,015

3.7

%

-4.6

%

-18.9

%

-15.6

%

Nissan

73,563

101,244

73,833

-27.3

%

-33.2

%

-0.4

%

3.6

%

Subaru

53,375

51,659

57,885

3.3

%

-4.9

%

-7.8

%

-4.1

%

Tesla

23,903

16,000

19,000

49.4

%

37.4

%

25.8

%

30.8

%

Toyota

164,395

169,656

190,532

-3.1

%

-10.9

%

-13.7

%

-10.3

%

Volkswagen Group

49,174

48,679

50,275

1.0

%

-7.1

%

-2.2

%

1.7

%

Industry

1,221,092

1,272,583

1,319,682

-4.0

%

-11.7

%

-7.5

%

-3.8

%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Sep 2020 Forecast

Sep 2019 Actual

Aug 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

25,228

28,418

24,115

-11.2

%

-18.3

%

4.6

%

8.8

%

Daimler

24,216

29,283

23,470

-17.3

%

-23.9

%

3.2

%

7.3

%

FCA

140,147

134,697

150,584

4.0

%

-4.3

%

-6.9

%

-3.2

%

Ford

141,951

134,406

143,294

5.6

%

-2.8

%

-0.9

%

3.0

%

GM

180,551

174,823

186,608

3.3

%

-5.0

%

-3.2

%

0.6

%

Honda

106,099

113,035

135,269

-6.1

%

-13.6

%

-21.6

%

-18.4

%

Hyundai

49,201

43,485

57,371

13.1

%

4.1

%

-14.2

%

-10.8

%

Kia

45,279

40,178

55,480

12.7

%

3.7

%

-18.4

%

-15.1

%

Nissan

70,757

73,228

68,560

-3.4

%

-11.1

%

3.2

%

7.3

%

Subaru

52,549

50,676

56,677

3.7

%

-4.6

%

-7.3

%

-3.6

%

Tesla

23,891

16,000

18,986

49.3

%

37.4

%

25.8

%

30.9

%

Toyota

159,017

162,470

184,787

-2.1

%

-10.0

%

-13.9

%

-10.5

%

Volkswagen Group

48,967

48,000

49,828

2.0

%

-6.1

%

-1.7

%

2.2

%

Industry

1,111,397

1,090,616

1,205,791

1.9

%

-6.2

%

-7.8

%

-4.1

%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Sep 2020 Forecast

Sep 2019 Actual

Aug 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

1,097

2,682

1,120

-59.1

%

-62.4

%

-2.0

%

1.9

%

Daimler

816

2,719

496

-70.0

%

-72.4

%

64.4

%

71.0

%

FCA

26,991

46,524

20,935

-42.0

%

-46.6

%

28.9

%

34.1

%

Ford

38,099

38,927

41,487

-2.1

%

-10.0

%

-8.2

%

-4.5

%

GM

23,453

34,835

32,237

-32.7

%

-38.1

%

-27.2

%

-24.3

%

Honda

445

890

656

-50.0

%

-54.0

%

-32.1

%

-29.4

%

Hyundai

7,716

10,025

2,350

-23.0

%

-29.2

%

228.3

%

241.4

%

Kia

977

4,441

1,535

-78.0

%

-79.8

%

-36.4

%

-33.8

%

Nissan

2,806

28,016

5,273

-90.0

%

-90.8

%

-46.8

%

-44.7

%

Subaru

826

983

1,208

-16.0

%

-22.7

%

-31.6

%

-28.9

%

Tesla

12

-

14

-

-

-15.6

%

-12.2

%

Toyota

5,379

7,186

5,745

-25.1

%

-31.1

%

-6.4

%

-2.6

%

Volkswagen Group

207

679

447

-69.6

%

-72.0

%

-53.7

%

-51.9

%

Industry

109,694

181,967

113,891

-39.7

%

-44.5

%

-3.7

%

0.2

%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Sep 2020 Forecast

Sep 2019 Actual

Aug 2020 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

4.2

%

8.6

%

4.4

%

-51.7

%

-6.1

%

Daimler

3.3

%

8.5

%

2.1

%

-61.6

%

57.4

%

FCA

16.1

%

25.7

%

12.2

%

-37.1

%

32.3

%

Ford

21.2

%

22.5

%

22.5

%

-5.8

%

-5.8

%

GM

11.5

%

16.6

%

14.7

%

-30.8

%

-22.0

%

Honda

0.4

%

0.8

%

0.5

%

-46.5

%

-13.4

%

Hyundai

13.6

%

18.7

%

3.9

%

-27.6

%

244.4

%

Kia

2.1

%

10.0

%

2.7

%

-78.8

%

-21.6

%

Nissan

3.8

%

27.7

%

7.1

%

-86.2

%

-46.6

%

Subaru

1.5

%

1.9

%

2.1

%

-18.7

%

-25.9

%

Tesla

0.1

%

0.0

%

0.1

%

-

-32.9

%

Toyota

3.3

%

4.2

%

3.0

%

-22.8

%

8.5

%

Volkswagen Group

0.4

%

1.4

%

0.9

%

-69.9

%

-52.7

%

Industry

9.0

%

14.3

%

8.6

%

-37.2

%

4.1

%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Sep 2020 Forecast

Sep 2019 Actual

Aug 2020 Actual

BMW

2.2

%

2.4

%

1.9

%

Daimler

2.0

%

2.5

%

1.8

%

FCA

13.7

%

14.2

%

13.0

%

Ford

14.7

%

13.6

%

14.0

%

GM

16.7

%

16.5

%

16.6

%

Honda

8.7

%

9.0

%

10.3

%

Hyundai

4.7

%

4.2

%

4.5

%

Kia

3.8

%

3.5

%

4.3

%

Nissan

6.0

%

8.0

%

5.6

%

Subaru

4.4

%

4.1

%

4.4

%

Tesla

2.0

%

1.3

%

1.4

%

Toyota

13.5

%

13.3

%

14.4

%

Volkswagen Group

4.0

%

3.8

%

3.8

%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Sep 2020 Forecast

Sep 2019 Actual

Aug 2020 Actual

BMW

2.3

%

2.6

%

2.0

%

Daimler

2.2

%

2.7

%

1.9

%

FCA

12.6

%

12.4

%

12.5

%

Ford

12.8

%

12.3

%

11.9

%

GM

16.2

%

16.0

%

15.5

%

Honda

9.5

%

10.4

%

11.2

%

Hyundai

4.4

%

4.0

%

4.8

%

Kia

4.1

%

3.7

%

4.6

%

Nissan

6.4

%

6.7

%

5.7

%

Subaru

4.7

%

4.6

%

4.7

%

Tesla

2.1

%

1.5

%

1.6

%

Toyota

14.3

%

14.9

%

15.3

%

Volkswagen Group

4.4

%

4.4

%

4.1

%

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

Aug 2020 Forecast

Aug 2019 Actual

Jul 2020 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$

57,575

$

54,440

$

56,655

5.8

%

1.6

%

Daimler

$

58,441

$

56,685

$

59,482

3.1

%

-1.8

%

FCA

$

43,011

$

40,276

$

41,981

6.8

%

2.5

%

Ford

$

43,469

$

40,491

$

42,707

7.4

%

1.8

%

GM

$

42,215

$

41,577

$

41,600

1.5

%

1.5

%

Honda

$

30,282

$

29,214

$

30,136

3.7

%

0.5

%

Hyundai

$

28,742

$

25,682

$

28,244

11.9

%

1.8

%

Kia

$

27,050

$

25,784

$

26,181

4.9

%

3.3

%

Nissan

$

28,937

$

29,440

$

28,666

-1.7

%

0.9

%

Subaru

$

29,991

$

29,534

$

30,184

1.5

%

-0.6

%

Toyota

$

33,726

$

32,919

$

34,003

2.4

%

-0.8

%

Volkswagen Group

$

41,118

$

39,261

$

40,995

4.7

%

0.3

%

Industry

$

36,541

$

35,319

$

36,385

3.5

%

0.4

%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

Sep 2020 Forecast

Sep 2019 Actual

Aug 2020 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$

4,912

$

6,019

$

5,803

-18.4

%

-15.4

%

Daimler

$

5,653

$

5,369

$

5,675

5.3

%

-0.4

%

FCA

$

5,172

$

4,896

$

5,060

5.6

%

2.2

%

Ford

$

4,325

$

4,606

$

4,298

-6.1

%

0.6

%

GM

$

5,975

$

5,124

$

5,679

16.6

%

5.2

%

Honda

$

1,941

$

2,015

$

2,618

-3.7

%

-25.8

%

Hyundai

$

2,361

$

2,732

$

2,494

-13.6

%

-5.3

%

Kia

$

3,009

$

3,541

$

3,779

-15.0

%

-20.4

%

Nissan

$

4,158

$

3,862

$

4,816

7.7

%

-13.7

%

Subaru

$

1,627

$

1,454

$

1,747

11.9

%

-6.9

%

Toyota

$

2,666

$

2,406

$

2,720

10.8

%

-2.0

%

Volkswagen Group

$

4,082

$

3,422

$

4,339

19.3

%

-5.9

%

Industry

$

4,001

$

3,802

$

4,060

5.3

%

-1.4

%

Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

Sep 2020 Forecast

Sep 2019 Actual

Aug 2020 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

8.5

%

11.1

%

10.2

%

-22.8

%

-16.7

%

Daimler

9.7

%

9.5

%

9.5

%

2.1

%

1.4

%

FCA

12.0

%

12.2

%

12.1

%

-1.1

%

-0.2

%

Ford

9.9

%

11.4

%

10.1

%

-12.5

%

-1.1

%

GM

14.2

%

12.3

%

13.7

%

14.9

%

3.7

%

Honda

6.4

%

6.9

%

8.7

%

-7.1

%

-26.2

%

Hyundai

8.2

%

10.6

%

8.8

%

-22.8

%

-7.0

%

Kia

11.1

%

13.7

%

14.4

%

-19.0

%

-22.9

%

Nissan

14.4

%

13.1

%

16.8

%

9.5

%

-14.5

%

Subaru

5.4

%

4.9

%

5.8

%

10.2

%

-6.3

%

Toyota

7.9

%

7.3

%

8.0

%

8.2

%

-1.2

%

Volkswagen Group

9.9

%

8.7

%

10.6

%

13.9

%

-6.2

%

Industry

11.0

%

10.8

%

11.2

%

1.7

%

-1.9

%

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

Q2 2020

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

74,048

86,157

53,029

-14.1

%

-15.2

%

39.6

%

39.6

%

Daimler

75,847

89,766

58,917

-15.5

%

-16.6

%

28.7

%

28.7

%

FCA

496,956

567,380

364,943

-12.4

%

-13.5

%

36.2

%

36.2

%

Ford

539,809

576,006

432,317

-6.3

%

-7.5

%

24.9

%

24.9

%

GM

627,605

735,642

489,264

-14.7

%

-15.8

%

28.3

%

28.3

%

Honda

367,919

429,223

293,502

-14.3

%

-15.4

%

25.4

%

25.4

%

Hyundai

175,571

177,953

145,307

-1.3

%

-2.6

%

20.8

%

20.8

%

Kia

155,750

158,754

125,392

-1.9

%

-3.2

%

24.2

%

24.2

%

Nissan

220,859

327,354

177,328

-32.5

%

-33.4

%

24.5

%

24.5

%

Subaru

162,718

185,804

136,518

-12.4

%

-13.6

%

19.2

%

19.2

%

Tesla

35,769

42,000

25,500

-14.8

%

-15.9

%

40.3

%

40.3

%

Toyota

523,718

627,194

398,029

-16.5

%

-17.6

%

31.6

%

31.6

%

Volkswagen Group

146,791

165,826

115,911

-11.5

%

-12.6

%

26.6

%

26.6

%

Industry

3,768,194

4,318,068

2,936,014

-12.7

%

-13.9

%

28.3

%

28.3

%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

Q2 2020

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

70,962

79,926

51,760

-11.2

%

-12.4

%

37.1

%

37.1

%

Daimler

73,375

83,883

56,995

-12.5

%

-13.7

%

28.7

%

28.7

%

FCA

416,702

443,710

322,158

-6.1

%

-7.3

%

29.3

%

29.3

%

Ford

425,585

456,665

355,210

-6.8

%

-8.0

%

19.8

%

19.8

%

GM

555,453

605,441

438,178

-8.3

%

-9.4

%

26.8

%

26.8

%

Honda

366,382

425,956

290,488

-14.0

%

-15.1

%

26.1

%

26.1

%

Hyundai

151,770

156,789

141,767

-3.2

%

-4.5

%

7.1

%

7.1

%

Kia

152,460

143,077

122,218

6.6

%

5.2

%

24.7

%

24.7

%

Nissan

212,434

245,038

151,149

-13.3

%

-14.4

%

40.5

%

40.5

%

Subaru

160,201

181,937

133,709

-11.9

%

-13.1

%

19.8

%

19.8

%

Tesla

58,673

42,000

25,248

39.7

%

37.9

%

132.4

%

132.4

%

Toyota

506,583

600,433

386,069

-15.6

%

-16.7

%

31.2

%

31.2

%

Volkswagen Group

146,174

159,560

114,221

-8.4

%

-9.6

%

28.0

%

28.0

%

Industry

3,429,686

3,766,432

2,702,199

-8.9

%

-10.1

%

26.9

%

26.9

%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

Q2 2020

BMW

2.0

%

2.0

%

1.8

%

Daimler

2.0

%

2.1

%

2.0

%

FCA

13.2

%

13.1

%

12.4

%

Ford

14.3

%

13.3

%

14.7

%

GM

16.7

%

17.0

%

16.7

%

Honda

9.8

%

9.9

%

10.0

%

Hyundai

4.7

%

4.1

%

4.9

%

Kia

4.1

%

3.7

%

4.3

%

Nissan

5.9

%

7.6

%

6.0

%

Subaru

4.3

%

4.3

%

4.6

%

Tesla

0.9

%

1.0

%

0.9

%

Toyota

13.9

%

14.5

%

13.6

%

Volkswagen Group

3.9

%

3.8

%

3.9

%

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer

Q3 2020

Q3 2019

Q2 2020

BMW

2.1

%

2.1

%

1.9

%

Daimler

2.1

%

2.2

%

2.1

%

FCA

12.1

%

11.8

%

11.9

%

Ford

12.4

%

12.1

%

13.1

%

GM

16.2

%

16.1

%

16.2

%

Honda

10.7

%

11.3

%

10.8

%

Hyundai

4.4

%

4.2

%

5.2

%

Kia

4.4

%

3.8

%

4.5

%

Nissan

6.2

%

6.5

%

5.6

%

Subaru

4.7

%

4.8

%

4.9

%

Tesla

1.7

%

1.1

%

0.9

%

Toyota

14.8

%

15.9

%

14.3

%

Volkswagen Group

4.3

%

4.2

%

4.2

%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694


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