Sara to soon form in Caribbean, track into Florida next week

A batch of showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean was designated by AccuWeather meteorologists as a tropical rainstorm earlier this week and is forecast to become a tropical storm later this week. The tropical rainstorm was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nineteen early Thursday morning, which is one step below a tropical storm.

Because the center has formed close to land in Central America, it will likely track over land relatively soon. Land proximity was a concern with the depression for strengthening early on. If the center is able to remain offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras for a couple of days, it could still reach hurricane intensity. But because of the proximity to land, rapid strengthening to a major hurricane now seems unlikely. However, the consequences of spending days near or over land can unleash torrential rainfall and a significant risk of a flash flooding and mudslide disaster in the northern parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Should the feature survive its passage over Central America and southeastern Mexico, Floridians may have to brace for yet another strike this season as the strengthening tropical depression could track into the Gulf of Mexico and turn toward the Sunshine State next week.

AccuWeather meteorologists designated the showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean as a tropical rainstorm on Tuesday evening. This gives residents and visitors in the potential threat zone ample time to prepare for a tropical threat ahead of any official watches and warnings that might be issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

On Wednesday afternoon, the NHC designated the tropical rainstorm as Potential Tropical Cyclone 19. A tropical storm watch was issued for northeastern Nicaragua and a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch were issued for Honduras. Potential Tropical Cyclone was upgraded to Tropical Depression 19 on Thursday morning.

"Wind shear remains negligible over much of the Caribbean, and waters are plenty warm (in the 80s F)," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, "And now, with showers and thunderstorms developing a circulation, it will likely not be much longer until the tropical depression organizes into a tropical storm."

Wind shear is stiff breezes that can prevent a tropical storm from forming or cause a tropical storm or hurricane to weaken. When wind shear is low, it makes it easier for a tropical storm to form and strengthen.

With no competition for a tropical storm throughout the Atlantic basin, the next name on the list, Sara, is likely to be given to the rainstorm in the Caribbean.

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"Should the [rainstorm] become a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season, where the historical average is seven hurricanes," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

"There are multiple scenarios with the [rainstorm] in the Caribbean that are tied to the speed of development and track early on that could affect land areas with landfall and direct impacts," DaSilva said.

The track is likely to be heavily influenced by the position of a dome of high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States and the speed of an approaching non-tropical storm and trailing cold front.

Because the high will firmly hold its ground and the forward speed of the front be a bit slower, it could steer the future hurricane into Central America or southeastern Mexico late this week.

From there, it may diminish over the region or possibly begin a turn toward the Gulf of Mexico. However, with such a path over land for a number of hours, it would lose wind intensity, and it may not have time to regain hurricane strength before any approach to Florida. Water temperatures are not as warm over the Gulf as they are over the western Caribbean, so a regain of wind intensity cold be slow.

"Should the current tropical depression ramp up after it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico and become a hurricane, it would be the fourth hurricane this season to hit Florida," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said, "If so, that will surpass the record of three landfalls in one season from 2004."

As the future storm reaches Central America, it may slow down and stall. The tropical entity could even complete a small loop, which would extend the time frame of the impacts for much of the region.

Interests in Central America, from Nicaragua to Belize, in southeastern Mexico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Florida and the Bahamas are strongly recommended to monitor the progress of the evolving tropical threat.

At this time the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for Central America is a 4 due to the likelihood of excessive rainfall and the potential for a flooding disaster.

The RealImpact scale takes into consideration flooding rain, storm surge, population affected and economic loss in addition to winds. The Saffir-Simpson scale only references the maximum sustained winds. The magnitude of the RealImpact for the U.S. is still being assessed. However, the risk of at least some impact on South Florida is high at this time.

Where a tropical storm or hurricane makes landfall, there will be significant downpours that can lead to flash flooding, strong wind gusts that can cause property damage and power outages and a storm surge that may also pose a significant risk to lives and property.

The storm is expected to strengthen as it creeps westward over the Caribbean.

The heaviest rain is forecast to fall in northern Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua, with a swath of 12-18 inches. Since the future hurricane may stall, some locations will pick up a few feet of rain in a matter of two to three days. Life-threatening and damaging flash flooding and mudslides are anticipated. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 50 inches.

The tropical depression could intensify into a tropical storm as early as Thursday morning. Further intensification is expected after that, and a strong tropical storm could be churning in the western Caribbean this weekend.

Next week, the storm should finally begin to increase in speed and enter the Gulf of Mexico. All residents along the central and eastern Gulf coast will need to keep a close eye on its progression, as it is still too soon to tell exactly where it may end up by the middle and end of next week.

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