Triangle families, cost of living, child-free life: Australia is at 'point of no return'

Australian women are having children later in life, and some not at all. So what does that mean for our future?

Left to right: Tanya Williams, Karina Irby with her  husband and Erin Hutchinson.
Tanya Williams (left) and Karina Irby (centre) say they're happy without kids, while Erin Hutchinson (right) says she can't afford to have any. Source: Supplied/TikTok

Australia's fertility rate has hit an all-time low, it was revealed this week. And while more and more Aussies admit they don't ever see themselves as parents, some experts fear it could have dire consequences.

Bureau of Statistics figures show 286,998 births were registered in Australia in 2023, resulting in a total fertility rate of 1.50 babies per woman, down 4.6 per cent on 2022 — a far cry from the ideal 2.1 considered the "replacement rate" governments strive for, without relying on immigration.

And while demographer Liz Allen fears "we've hit rock bottom" based on recent data, her colleague Peter McDonald at the Australian National University has a different view. "There's no need to panic," he told Yahoo News.

The demographer noted that while the Total Fertility Rate, or TFR, has been decreasing steadily over 50 odd years, birth rates among migrants to Australia have boomed — which isn't factored into the TFR metric.

And while the birth rate among women in their 20s and 30s has certainly declined, the fertility rate of women aged 40 to 44 years has almost doubled over the past 30 years, data shows.

"The total fertility rate is quite a misleading measure. It's not reliable," he argued. "In a country like Australia (where migration is high), we could have a number of about 1.5 and still have more births and deaths for a long time into the future because migration adds to the childbearing population."

Recent data shows more than half of 18 to 34-year-olds are delaying starting a family, while many are choosing to eschew parenthood altogether. According to McDonald, roughly 20 per cent of Aussie women "will not have a baby during their lifetime" — this will only be a problem if it increases to 30 per cent, he said.

In recent times, the cost of living has been noted as a major driving force behind the decision. Housing shortages and more households with two parents in the workforce are said to be contributing to fewer Aussies having kids too.

Melbourne mum Erin Hutchinson previously told Yahoo News "it's becoming more and more apparent that it's totally financially irresponsible for me to have a child". But McDonald said "children are not an economic good" and encouraged Aussies not to let the cost of kids get in the way.

"People have children because they want to have children, not for economic reasons. If it was purely economic reasons, everybody would have no children because they obviously cost money," he said.

"You're going to be financially better off if you don't have children, that's very obvious. But children have another value, not an economic value".

The freedom appeal, uncertainty and life balance are also reasons for women choosing to be childfree — issues raised by many on social media. Like Gold Coast woman Karina Irby who, at 33, admitted she's happy without kids.

Do you have concerns about having kids? We’d love to hear about it! Carly.bass@yahooinc.com

Graph showing registered births between 1935 to 2023. Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
Graph showing registered births between 1935 to 2023. Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Tanya Williams, author of A Childfree Happily Ever After, has made it her mission to break the taboo in speaking about becoming childfree. "Women need to understand they have a choice and do what's right for them and not give into peer pressure," she told Yahoo this month.

And McDonald agrees. "It's a personal choice. If people want to have no children, that's their choice," he said. "But we should have a society which is supportive of families that do have children because children are the future of the society."

Last month, single-child families, otherwise known as 'triangle families', were revealed as the new normal for millions. In Australia, the number of only-child families doubled in the past 40 years with the cost of raising kids a possible reason why.

In 1981, 7.6 per cent of women in Australia aged 40 to 44 only ever had one child. In 2021, that number more than doubled to 16.3 per cent. In Europe, triangle families are the most common dynamic, making up 49 per cent of all households with children. It's also common in Japan and South Korea.

Aussie parents Brendan and Heather with their only daughter.
Brendan and Heather have opted to have just one child – and it's a trend that's growing all over the world. Source: The Project

Aussie mum-of-one Heather Hunt said it's "really important" people understand how "amazing" a family of just three can be with her and her husband begging for the stigma around 'triangle families' to end.

But with the 'triangle family' trend becoming more common among Aussies, some experts fear we're now at "the point of no return".

"What is so important about this particular number, 1.5, is that once we hit this figure we are basically staring down the barrel of no return," Allen told the ABC on Thursday. "We've got to a position where young people are saying now is inhospitable to having children".

While it's true that having fewer babies can hamper economic growth, and present big challenges like an ageing population and an under-sourced workforce trying to support it, McDonald said it will take a very long time before that happens.

Although he believes we're not at a crisis point just yet, McDonald says our federal government must still consider the future and take the right steps now to support families.

"I think we will see both parties with affordable childcare policies coming up for the next election because of the need to assist families with children. The other main way to assist is affordable housing, but that's much more difficult to achieve," he said.

Do you have a story tip? Email: newsroomau@yahoonews.com.

You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube.