TRI Pointe Group, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year
Investors in TRI Pointe Group, Inc. (NYSE:TPH) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.6% to close at US$18.04 following the release of its full-year results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$3.1b were in line with what analysts predicted, TRI Pointe Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.47 per share, a notable 11% above expectations. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see analysts' latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for TRI Pointe Group
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for TRI Pointe Group from six analysts is for revenues of US$3.33b in 2020, which is a meaningful 8.1% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to rise 8.0% to US$1.59. Yet prior to the latest earnings, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.32b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.53 in 2020. Analysts seem to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$17.33, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values TRI Pointe Group at US$19.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggests analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
It can also be useful to step back and take a broader view of how analyst forecasts compare to TRI Pointe Group's performance in recent years. We would highlight that TRI Pointe Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 8.1% increase next year well below the historical 11%p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, other companies in this market with analyst coverage, are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% next year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that analysts still thinkTRI Pointe Group will grow faster than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away from this is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards TRI Pointe Group following these results. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data does suggest that TRI Pointe Group's revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TRI Pointe Group going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see whether TRI Pointe Group is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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