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Will the public be right about the Patriots on Thursday night?
Less than a week after four favorites getting over 80% of the money lost outright in Week 10, the Patriots are getting 85% of the handle at BetMGM against the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. New England is a 6.5-point favorite and the line hasn’t moved since it opened despite 83% of the bets coming in on New England.
As Frank Schwab noted earlier this week, the line staying the same despite all the money on New England may be a tell of what oddsmakers think could happen.
The Falcons are +225 to win straight up while the Patriots are -275 to win on the moneyline. The total has moved up a half point to 47 after opening at 46.5. Just under two-thirds of the cash bet on the total is on the over, though bets are basically split 50/50 between the over and the under.
Will Damien Harris score first?
The most popular prop bet at BetMGM ahead of the game is Damien Harris scoring first. The Patriots’ running back is at +650 to score the first TD of the game. The second-most bet prop is Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson to score at any point. Stevenson — who had a breakout performance against the Browns in Week 10 — is at +100 to score a TD on Thursday night.
Stevenson is also +650 to score the first TD of the game. Harris is +105 to score a TD at any point.
We’re fans of a Patriots win and a Falcons cover. You can get a New England win by six or fewer points at +310. That’s good return given that the spread hasn’t moved despite all the New England money.