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Defence key for Swans: Worsfold

FREMANTLE

GAME STYLE

I haven't seen a lot of change in Fremantle's game style this year. Obviously, their focus is still on being brilliant defensively and they are No.2 in that category this year behind Sydney. It is not surprising that the two teams are so similar in that area as coach Ross Lyon cut his teeth with Paul Roos at Sydney and so did Swans boss John Longmire. So that will be the bulk of how this game will be played.

The issue with Freo is that they rely so heavily on maximising their scoring opportunities and that's sort of what cost them in the grand final last year because they missed some early chances. Generally when they go forward, they either score straight away on the run or they get it where they can mark in a pretty good position to get a good shot away. But they've really got to take those chances.

Freo are ranked ninth in the competition for inside 50s, which is low for a team that is up with the favourites for the flag, and they are ranked seventh in scoring. It's not ideal, but their defensive game means they're not relying on being a high-scoring team. As for their tagger Ryan Crowley, I'd be sending him to Dan Hannebery or Kieren Jack and I'd be leaning to the former because he's their main man if he gets up and going.

STRENGTH

Fremantle's biggest strength is strangling the opposition and outscoring it, usually in low-scoring games. But that's not taking away from the fact that they've still got one of the best squads going around. Regardless of style of play, they've still got talent across the field and that gets overlooked sometimes. It's not just about their game style, it's about having the quality of players to be able to play it.

With a forecast for a few showers in Sydney today, the Dockers may also be able to bank on more ball going into pack situations where four or six players could be flying for it. That will allow them a better chance to run it out again. The wetter it is, the happier Freo will be.

WEAKNESS

They will miss Luke McPharlin and Michael Johnson because if you look at their back line, they are the two class, quality players. And that is even more of an issue when you consider the quality of the Sydney forward line the Dockers come up against today. Freo will get numbers back and they do rely on getting help for their key defenders.

So the strong focus on shoring up the defensive side of their game in the absence of McPharlin and Johnson may limit their fast-break scoring. I would resist taking Chris Mayne out of the forward line into a defensive role and that means players such as Paul Duffield, Lee Spurr and Garrick Ibbotson are going to have to step up a bit and maybe even play above their height. You would move Mayne only if you were really desperate because you'd be taking away from two or three areas if you start shuffling things around too much.


THE VENUE

My guess is that if Fremantle had a choice of ground, they would pick ANZ Stadium over the SCG every time. Their mantra has been "anywhere, any time" or "no excuses", but playing at the skinnier ANZ Stadium will mean the Fremantle coaches will not have to warn and educate the players of any adjustments they may have had to make to their press positioning.

X-FACTOR

The unknown over how the ambush on their travel schedule because of technical problems with their plane on Thursday afternoon has to be put in this category. It will definitely change some of the things they were planning to do, but they will still do the key things in terms of their preparation.

Could Matt de Boer provide Fremantle with the X-factor? Picture: Ian Munro / The West Australian


The other X-factor could be whether they decide to bring in emergency Matt de Boer in place of surprise-choice ruckman Jon Griffin, particularly if it is wet as forecast. De Boer is in pretty good touch and he's a proven good player in their style.

SYDNEY GAME STYLE

Everyone seems to talk about Sydney's superstar forward line, but it is actually their defensive game that has set them up to win this year's premiership. Defensively and particularly with their tackling, the Swans are outstanding.

The other thing in their attack is that they haven't necessarily put as many talls deep forward as many expected or as they have in the past. It's really only been Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett, with Adam Goodes running around and not playing as a tall, as such. Even Franklin has been playing pretty much like he did at Hawthorn, regularly running up the ground and winning a lot of footy.


Sydney are the No.1 tackling side in the comp and, as usual, they will be trying to drive the game from stoppage to stoppage. Sydney are ranked only seventh in clearance numbers and Freo ninth, but coming out of stoppages is where the Swans really go with Jack, Hannebery, Jarrad McVeigh and Lewis Jetta on the end of it. They will be reading that Aaron Sandilands will be winning most of the hit-outs and will want Mike Pyke bodying up so the big Docker doesn't have total dominance. They are elite runners who will try to outrun Freo.

STRENGTH

You just can't take away from the fact that they are the best defensive team. They are No.1 defensively and No.4 for scoring and clubs always look at the fact that most premiership teams are in the top five for both categories. That has been a trend for a long period of time so it puts them right in the mix. They don't just rely on scoring because they've got Franklin and Tippett, they still have a massive defensive focus and have been the best at it this year.


WEAKNESS

There aren't too many weaknesses here. But in saying that, their biggest strength could be their biggest weakness. If it becomes a tight and low-scoring game, that will suit Freo because they love it that way and believe Matthew Pavlich, Michael Walters, Hayden Ballantyne and Mayne will get enough opportunity to kick a sufficient total to win.

In the past five games, each team has had two wins and they played out a draw last season. There is not much between them. In those games, Fremantle's biggest winning goal tally was 15 and Sydney's was 14 so the games have not been as dour as we expected. If one team can get going and score efficiently, that could be the difference and Freo will be confident that will be them. The Dockers will be quite happy to keep an extra player behind the ball to stifle Sydney's scoring potential, but again this might also make scoring tougher for Freo.

THE VENUE

Sydney have played there often enough for it not to worry them too much and they do play that similar game to Freo. They are quite happy with the narrow ground and they've won their past six finals there.

X-FACTOR

Where Sam Reid plays could prove crucial for Sydney, particularly with key back Heath Grundy under an injury cloud. If Grundy is out, that may limit the Swans for options. I was tempted to put Gary Rohan in as an X-factor, but I don't know whether he's got that match hardness, especially for finals. Realistically, there are so many of their players who can be X-factors at different times. Jetta could be the one if there is a lot of energy put into Josh Kennedy, Jack and Hannebery.

VERDICT

My verdict is Sydney by two goals. Both teams are disciplined and Lyon will be doing his best to turn his team's negatives into positives. It means it comes down to the team that is more accurate with its shots at goal, therefore making the most of its opportunities. The Swans have such an even team which is up and going and I think across the board they are going to be able to build a score Fremantle won't be able to match.