Abbott is spoiling for a fight
It will be some years before the ABC attempts a Killing Season-style job on the current administration but even at this proximity there is an unmistakable sense that we are witnessing an inflection point in the life of Tony Abbott's Government.
The Prime Minister may be at near divorce with a half dozen Cabinet ministers over matters of internal process yet he holds sway with the majority of his backbench who’ve fallen back in love with their flighty leader.
Abbott’s quiet wrestle with putative leadership contender Malcolm Turnbull over proposed changes to citizenship laws has positively invigorated the PM.
He’s fed off the controversy and delighted in pushing back against the lawyerly criticisms of Cabinet colleagues, as much as he has enjoyed attempting to wedge the Labor Party.
Recent high-level leaks on national security, including the emergence of a secret question time brief in the pages ofThe West Australian this week, have only seen Abbott go harder.
He’s met dissent with ascending rhetoric, convinced that he can’t go wrong being the toughest guy.
His declaration yesterday that the proposed citizenship changes won’t go back to Cabinet is being seen inside the coalition as a deliberate provocation of Turnbull, who has made public his expectation that Cabinet will revisit the proposal once Solicitor-General advice about its legality is heeded.
As Turnbull tersely told Twitter this week: “Sorry to disappoint. But saying we must comply with the constitution is not breaking ranks. It’s a penetrating glimpse of the obvious.”
This is an issue that more than rankles with Turnbull who sees himself as a protector of the Westminster system. And Abbott knows it, declaring in Parliament that only “relevant ministers” — the PM himself, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton and Attorney-General George Brandis — had even seen the revised Bill to strip dual citizens of their citizenship.
With the presumed security of backbench support, Abbott seeks to reassert an authority within Cabinet by playing to Turnbull’s temper.
Turnbull is already in a dark mood. He was rolled by colleagues midweek after considering (at Dio Wang’s suggestion) some kind of media ownership inquiry. Turnbull must know Abbott is willing him to take the bait, to kill off his aspirations once and for all.
Abbott is doing similarly with the Opposition.
His assertion yesterday that Labor intended to “roll out the red carpet” for terrorists was one for the political poolroom of fame.
This is national security being played in a manner not seen in recent times. It’s a style of politics that doesn’t recommend itself to bipartisanship.
Nor is it in the national interest for the Prime Minister to accuse the alternative Government of tolerating or encouraging terrorists.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was correct when he described this an outrageous slur.
But it is no coincidence that Abbott’s (intentional) overreach comes at a time when Shorten has struck some nasty turbulence.
Abbott’s trajectory hereon — triumph or tragedy — could easily depend on how Shorten navigates through it.
Four months ago, when Abbott’s leadership was teetering, some senior people in the ALP were soberly estimating that the party wouldn’t know if Shorten had a chance of winning the next election until halfway through the year.
The ALP figures were waiting to see if Abbott had the capacity to regroup and reposition.
They’d be disappointed by Abbott’s recovery and dismayed by Shorten’s sudden cack-handedness on pensions and the boats. They’d also be worried by the portrayal of evidence being turned up about the Australian Workers Union when Shorten was boss.
The Labor leader no longer has the gales of public protest about the 2014 Budget to blow his political sails.
It’s come down to Shorten having the instinct, skill and wherewithal to take advantage of any potentially favourable zephyr. He’s not finding it so easy. Nor is Shorten being helped by newbie Greens leader Richard Di Natale’s intention to be a deal-maker.
Labor’s decision to reject the Government’s pension reforms has caused some internal murmurings of discontent.
What began as a calculation to reverse-ferret the Government’s intransigence on superannuation reforms, was undone by that man ScoMo.
Scott Morrison’s deal with Di Natale, confirmed just hours after Shorten accused the PM of pitting pensioner against pensioner, marooned Labor as the defenders of “millionaire” pensioners. Shorten’s strategy on boats has also been found wanting this week. It was media-driven and inconsistent.
Labor began the week by appropriately probing claims that Australian officials had paid people smugglers $US30,000 to turn their boat back to Indonesia, only to drop their inquiries when asked to rule out making similar payments in government, then resume those inquiries when criticised for going quiet.
It spoke of short-sighted tactics and no long-term goal.
As for the ill-winds coming from the royal commission, Shorten has wisely sought to bring forward his appearance.
There is no evidence of wrongdoing by Shorten. In fact, leading businessman and Abbott Government adviser Tony Shepherd yesterday commended Shorten for negotiating a multibillion-dollar agreement that was good for workers and business alike.
But with Abbott adopting a souped-up, take-no-prisoners approach to enemies and colleagues alike, Shorten needs to sharpen up. Abbott the destroyer senses opportunity.
