It’s not Fyfe’s medal yet ... Priddis again in the frame

Bookmakers who have decided to pay out on Nathan Fyfe Brownlow bets may need a reminder that, just as premierships are never won in May, Brownlow Medals rarely if ever are.

At $2.20 after eight rounds, Fyfe is one of the warmest early-season medal favourites in living memory. Using statistics, a recap of games and AFL Coaching Association votes as guides, we calculated his possible tally after eight rounds and came up with 19 votes from a possible 24.

To put that in context, if Fyfe continues to play the way he has and collects votes the way we predict he will, he is on target for a 50-vote season.

When Graham Moss won his medal in 1976 and two field umpires gave votes, making it possible for a player to poll six in one game, Moss polled 48 votes.

In years when only three votes have been available to a player from one game, no player has managed more than Dane Swan’s 34 votes in 2011.

But there are two cautionary notes to add here. First, at this stage last year similar things were being said about Gary Ablett who was injured in round 16, missed his team’s last seven games and finished on 22 votes, four votes shy of winner Matt Priddis.

And second, speaking of Priddis, the 2014 winner has possibly had an even better start to the 2015 season. He is now a clear second favourite for this year’s count at around $10 and, given his proven vote-winning ability, may represent the value bet.

There is no need to point out how Fyfe impacts on games and catches the umpires’ eyes. He was just one vote short of Priddis last year despite missing four games through suspension. He is a superb aerialist, arguably the competition’s best contested-ball winner and goes forward and kicks goals.

As of this year, he is widely regarded as the competition’s best player, with good reason.

Fyfe’s numbers are great but his influence and impact on games go beyond numbers. He bludgeons opposition teams with raw power and spectacular play. Priddis, on the other hand, is an accumulator of influence in games and so his numbers tell a big part of the story. And those numbers in 2015 say he will poll well again.

Using the same method as with Fyfe to calculate Priddis’ possible tally, we came up with 12 votes in eight games, on target for a 30-vote season.

Contested possession is a big part of Priddis’ vote-winning ability. In 2014, in 12 of 13 games where he had 14 contested possessions or more, he polled votes. He has reached that mark in five of eight games this year and that doesn’t include the Gold Coast game where he had 39 touches overall.

Last year he polled in 10 out of 12 games when he had 28 touches or more. He has hit or beaten that mark in seven of eight games so far. And he polled in 10 of 12 games where he managed seven or more clearances. He has done that in five of eight games.

Most would be stunned if Fyfe isn’t leading the Brownlow at this stage. But we are just over a third of the way through the home-and-away season and Priddis could be within a couple of best on grounds of Fyfe’s tally with 14 rounds remaining. In other words, it’s not over yet, regardless of what the bookmakers are telling us.

Mark Duffield predicts the Brownlow Medal votes for Dockers and Eagles games in 2015

DOCKERS

Round one v Port Adelaide

David Mundy 3

Nat Fyfe 2

Danyle Pearce 1

Round two v Geelong

Nat Fyfe 3

Stephen Hill 2

Michael Barlow 1

Round 3 v West Coast

Lachie Neale 3

Stephen Hill 2

Nat Fyfe 1

Round 4 v Sydney

Nat Fyfe 3

Luke McPharlin 2

Michael Johnson 1

Round 5 v Melbourne

Nat Fyfe 3

Chris Mayne 2

David Mundy 1

Round 6 v Essendon

Lachie Neale 3

Nat Fyfe 2

Matthew Pavlich 1

Round 7 v Bulldogs

Tory Dickson 3

Nat Fyfe 2

Michael Johnson 1

Round 8 v North Melbourne

Nat Fyfe 3

Michael Barlow 2

Michael Walters 1

After eight rounds: Fyfe 19 votes

WEST COAST

Round one v Bulldogs

Jeremy McGovern 3

Jake Stringer 2

Matthew Boyd 1

Round 2 v Carlton

Josh Kennedy 3

Matt Priddis 2

Luke Shuey 1

Round 3 v Fremantle

Lachie Neale 3

Stephen Hill 2

Nat Fyfe 1

Round 4 v Brisbane

Matt Priddis 3

Sam Butler 2

Jeremy McGovern 1

Round 5 v GWS

Josh Kennedy 3

Elliot Yeo 2

Andrew Gaff 1

Round 6 v Port Adelaide

Matt Priddis 3

Mark LeCras 2

Robbie Gray 1

Round 7 v Gold Coast

Matt Priddis 3

Elliot Yeo 2

Chris Masten 1

Round 8 v St Kilda

Luke Shuey 3

Andrew Gaff 2

Matt Priddis 1

After eight rounds: Priddis 12 votes