Surprising climate change prediction ahead of US election results
While the United States is the most powerful nation on Earth, the election result may not change the world's response to climate change.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have differing views on one of the biggest issues of our time — fossil fuel emissions. But surprisingly a leading climate advocacy group predicts the US Election result won’t trigger a major change in global efforts to tackle the climate crisis.
Harris is expected to continue the Biden Administration’s planned multi-billion-dollar investment in clean energy. Trump on the other hand is more favourable to the oil and gas industry — famously telling the 2024 Republican National Convention he wants to “drill baby, drill”. And on multiple occasions, he’s called the climate crisis a “hoax” perpetrated by the Chinese government.
But no matter the election outcome, Australia's Climate Council doesn’t think America can ignore the crisis. Its CEO Amanda McKenzie predicts an escalation of what she calls “unnatural” disasters will force the nation's hand on the issue.
To highlight her case, she looks to Australia where politicians have shown increased bipartisanship on climate change since the unprecedented destruction of the 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires, which were linked to climate change.
“The cost of Milton alone could reach up to US $50 billion ($76 billion),” she said in reference to the Category 5 Hurricane that lashed Florida in October.
“Trump voters are among the people being heavily affected, particularly in the south which is in the line of hurricanes and extreme storms. Regardless of who's elected, the climate crisis continues. It doesn't care about politics, it just cares about the laws of physics and chemistry.”
Related: What a Trump or Harris presidency would mean for climate change
How Chinese dominance could keep US in renewables race
Dr Wesley Morgan is a research associate at the Institute of Climate Risk at the University of NSW, and a Climate Council fellow. He doesn’t believe Trump will simply be able to wind back the Biden administration's investment in clean energy through the Inflation Reduction Act because the policy is benefiting many Red states through the building of new factories.
With China dominating global production of EVs, batteries, wind turbines and solar panels, Morgan believes there would be internal pressure in the US to continue to compete with the increasingly powerful nation.
“Part of the rationale for the US spending all this money on clean energy industries is to compete with China for tomorrow's economy. And Republicans are generally supportive of that and concerned about losing a technological edge to China,” he said.
If Trump did pull back momentum for the transition, he believes other nations like China, India and Australia will continue to capitalise on the renewable energy sector.
“Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement during his last term, but what’s fascinating is that no other country followed suit,” Morgan said, noting this was in direct contrast to the year 2000 when President George W Bush refused to sign onto the Kyoto Protocol and Australia under Prime Minister John Howard did likewise.
Australia's national interest lies in renewables
Morgan believes global cooperation on climate change is stronger than any one country, even if it was to be opposed by the United States — arguably the most powerful nation on Earth.
No matter the result of the US election, he predicts Australia will continue to back the renewable energy transition because as a middle power, it benefits most from a rules-based global order, particularly given the regional threat from powers like Russia or China.
"There is a risk that Trump-style denialism could find a foothold in Australia, but I think Australians are getting on with the energy transition. Our main national electricity grid is up to 40 per cent clean energy, and we're on track for 80 per cent at the end of the decade," he said.
Australia has raised its hand to host the COP31 global climate talks in 2026, alongside other Pacific nations, which are being disproportionately impacted by climate change because of their low-lying positioning in the Pacific. And these tiny nations, which are increasingly being courted closer to China have urged Australia to be more ambitious in its response to the crisis as they consider future political ties.
“No matter who's in the White House, it's in our interest to reinforce the Paris Agreement and global cooperation to meet the Paris Agreement goals,” Morgan said.
“The science has completely settled that burning coal, oil and gas, releases greenhouse gasses which are the main contributor to climate change — Trump denies that. But I think Australians are past that now, and I don’t think denialism has a place in Australian politics.”
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