Mahomes is +100 to be named MVP at BetMGM and Brady is +200, so it’s tough to find a lot of value there.
“What about Tyreek Hill?” you might say. “He had 269 yards receiving and three touchdowns against Tampa Bay in Week 12.”
He’s +900, and while that’s a solid wager, we’re looking deeper here for an even bigger payoff.
The Chiefs’ offensive line is expected to be without two key starters for the Super Bowl. Mitchell Schwartz suffered a back injury in Week 6, and coach Andy Reid said Monday that Schwartz is unlikely to return for the big game. Eric Fisher tore his Achilles tendon in the AFC championship win over Buffalo.
That weakened unit could be a factor against a dangerous Bucs defense that sacked Packers QB Aaron Rodgers five times in the NFC title game.
Now, if any quarterback can overcome some offensive line vulnerabilities, it’s Mahomes. But he is battling a turf toe injury, and, well, he isn’t perfect. Remember that time he took a 30-yard sack against the Dolphins?
So with all that in mind, how about Shaq Barrett (+5000) and Jason Pierre-Paul (+8000) for MVP? Barrett sacked Rodgers three times, and Pierre-Paul did it twice. With the Chiefs being a pass-first offense, the Tampa duo will have plenty of opportunities to get a strip-sack and perhaps a momentum-shifting TD return.
And let’s be honest. The strength of the Bucs can be their defense. We just watched Brady throw three interceptions and still win. If the Bucs pull off the upset, it will be because of more than just Brady.
Yes, a lot of things have to break right, and the odds reflect that. But there is a pathway to winning here, and that translates to value.
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