Brazil's COVID-19 death toll appears to be easing for the first time since May.
With nearly 4 million confirmed cases, the virus has killed over 120,000 people in South America's largest country but data shows it could be descending from an infection plateau that has seen it suffer the world's second-worst outbreak after the United States.
The level of average daily deaths dropped below 900 per day last week, the lowest in three and a half months and below the rate of both the US and India.
Researchers at Imperial College London also calculate the transmission rate in Brazil, at which each person infected with the virus infects another person, is now below 1, the level required for new infections to slow.
However the rate previously fell below 1 in August only to rebound a week later.
The government statistics are also volatile. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Brazil registered more than 1100 deaths each day and experts say it is too early to say the worst is over.
"We are on a downward trend compared to the previous high plateau," said Roberto Medronho, an infectious diseases expert at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
"But, the numbers are still high and we have to remain vigilant so that it doesn't grow again."
Epidemiologists see Brazil's example as a warning to some countries, like India, that are now seeing cases surge.
"Brazil is a cautionary tale," said Albert Ko, a professor at the Yale School of Public Health who has decades of experience in Brazil.
"The epidemic hit hard and many evidence-based interventions were not implemented or done properly in many places."
Social distancing, held by most public health experts as the key tool for containing the spread of the virus while no vaccine exists, was poorly implemented from the start in Brazil, sustaining the long peak in infections and deaths, experts say.
Data suggests that has been weakening too.
An analysis of Google mobility data collating phone movement shows the number of people coming and going from places of work in Brazil went from a 37.8 per cent reduction from pre-pandemic levels in April to 16 per cent in August.
Movement at transit hubs has also increased substantially, the data showed.
Stay-at-home measures have been loosened across the country amid pressure from President Jair Bolsonaro, who has criticised them as harmful to the economy.