Scholz’s Party Leads in German State Vote Ahead of Far Right

(Bloomberg) -- Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats appear to have held off a strong challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany to retain power in the eastern region of Brandenburg, sparing the chancellor and his party another embarrassing electoral setback.

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The SPD, which has ruled the former communist region surrounding Berlin since reunification in 1990, came first with 31.1%, according to projections Sunday for public broadcaster ARD. It follows a run of woeful performances by the party in state elections, which were seen at least in part as a referendum on Scholz’s deeply unpopular governing alliance at the national level.

The anti-immigrant AfD, which has much stronger support in eastern Germany than in the west, came narrowly second with 29.8%. The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht, or BSW — a new party of the far left that was founded only in January — was third with 12.3%, and the conservative Christian Democrats fourth at 11.9% - their third-worst result in a regional ballot since World War II.

Even though the SPD avoided another debacle, Scholz won’t be able to claim much credit for Sunday’s success. Dietmar Woidke, the popular SPD premier in the state for the past 11 years, sought to distance himself from the federal government during campaigning — which was dominated by the issue of irregular migration — and didn’t invite Scholz to any of his rallies.

While paying tribute to Woidke, Kevin Kuehnert, the SPD general secretary, suggested Scholz’s tougher line recently on migration may have also lifted their campaign.

“The problems that lie ahead of us have not gotten any bigger,” Kuehnert said in an interview with ARD. “But they haven’t gotten any smaller either.”

Debate about whether Scholz is the right man to lead the SPD into the next general election in just over a year’s time is likely to persist — even within the ranks of his own party.

As an alternative, it could consider the popular defense minister, Boris Pistorius, as its lead candidate.

Scholz followed the Brandenburg results from New York, where he’s attending a United Nations summit, before joining a virtual SPD leadership meeting. Asked by reporters to characterize the party’s mood, Scholz said: “Good, of course!”

To win the national vote, scheduled for Sept. 28, 2025, the SPD will have to close a significant gap to the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, which is leading on around 32% — more than the three members of Scholz’s SPD-Greens-FDP coalition combined.

The business-friendly FDP, led by Finance Minister Christian Lindner, is even in danger of missing the 5% threshold to get into federal parliament.

Friedrich Merz, the chairman of the Christian Democratic Union, will be the conservative candidate to run against Scholz after clearing a field of rivals to seal the nomination last week.

Polls suggest it could be a tight race. If Germans could vote directly for their head of government, 25% would choose Merz and 21% Scholz, according to an Insa survey published this month. Almost half, or 48%, wouldn’t pick either.

The Brandenburg incumbent Woidke looks to be in a position to form another coalition with his current partners — the Christian Democrats and the Greens, who projections put at 5%. The BSW could also potentially be brought into the fold but it’s unclear whether the CDU would accept that.

“I’m not quite happy yet, because you can see that there’s still a bit of movement, which is why we still need a bit of a brake on the euphoria at the moment,” Woidke told ARD.

“But it seems that once again, as so often in history, it was the Social Democrats who stopped the extremists on their way to power,” he added.

The final regional election before the national vote is in Hamburg at the beginning of March. The city state, where Scholz used to be mayor, is ruled by an SPD-led coalition with the Greens as junior partners.

Peter Tschentscher, the popular regional premier, is well placed to hold on to power, according to opinion polls.

--With assistance from Zoe Schneeweiss and Michael Nienaber.

(Updates with latest projections, Scholz comment.)

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