When will rain relieve dryness and fire threat in the Northeast?
A new surge of warmth and heightened fire risk will occur for the Northeast through midweek, but there will be some opportunities for rainfall that could ease dryness and fire potential looking ahead, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Weeks of limited to no rainfall and days with temperatures well above the historical average have resulted in dry brush and grass in the Northeast. Fallen leaves from the change of seasons have added to potential fuels in the region, and multiple brush fires have broken out in recent days.
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"The fire risk will continue until a thorough soaking rain occurs from one area to the next," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said, "On particular days where the temperature surges, humidity levels remain low and winds kick up, the fire risk will be significantly elevated."
Wednesday was one such day in the Northeast, particularly from West Virginia and Virginia to Downeast Maine, where temperatures were climbing well into the 70s to near 80 F, with a gusty southerly and southwesterly breeze.
Any existing fire can rapidly spread. Burning embers from tossed cigarettes, burning piles of leaves, smoldering campfires and sparks from outdoor power equipment are all means for igniting a fast-moving brush fire, and extreme care should be taken.
The winds were kicking up ahead of a cool front carrying some shower activity. However, as has often been the case with fronts packing showers from the Midwest, the moisture with this front was beginning to diminish as it approached the central and northern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. In many cases along the Interstate 95 corridor of the Northeast, little or no rain may fall from the frontal passage.
"Wednesday could be the last day of the autumn where we have highs within a few degrees of 80 until next spring," Dombek said. "Temperatures will challenge or break daily record highs at a number of locations."
In the wake of the front, temperatures will trend downward from Thursday to Saturday. For example, temperatures in New York City peaked at 80 F on Wednesday, followed by a forecast high in the mid-70s on Thursday, the upper 60s on Friday and then the mid-50s on Saturday.
The lower temperatures will help lower the threat of fire ignition, but existing fires may continue to burn and spread, especially during breezy episodes.
"Looking ahead, there will be some opportunities for rainfall in the coming weeks, but the overall pattern will remain progressive in the sense that any rainfall is likely to be brief and probably not excessive," Dombek said.
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One opportunity for some rain will begin this weekend and last into early next week. The arrival time is in question due to dry air and high pressure that would have to give way first.
"Should Rafael move northward and into the United States, tropical moisture associated with it might even boost the showers from the next approaching front," Dombek said.
Most likely, not enough rain will fall to have a significant or long-term impact on the drought, including shriveling small streams and drying up shallow reservoirs in the region. Subsequent shower events could be enough to knock down the wildfire threat until the next round of moisture arrives.
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Skiing interests are still out of luck. While the routine historical average temperature trends downward during November, actual temperatures will remain well above that normal downward slide.
"For much of the Northeast in general, by the end of the month, it looks like temperatures for all of November are likely to run about 5 degrees above the historical average in the Northeast," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, "We may not experience highs well in the 70s to near 80 again after Wednesday, but it will still be quite mild for many days considering the time of the year."
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For an entire month, any temperature departure from a historical average of 2 degrees or greater is considered significant.
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