When will it rain again in the Midwest, Northeast?
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As a long-running dry spell continues in parts of the Midwest and Northeast despite rain in part of the regions, some areas may continue to miss out on a thorough soaking, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The area covered by abnormally dry to drought conditions across the Midwest and Northeast continued to increase over the past week with a large pocket of extreme to exceptional drought in parts of Ohio and West Virginia.
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Unless conditions change, the wildfire risk may substantially increase once leaves begin to come down this autumn.
A coastal storm that drenched some parched areas of Virginia and brought periods of rain to Washington, D.C., with spotty showers to Philadelphia, skipped New York City. It could be well into the new week before the next decent chance of rain evolves in the Big Apple. On Thursday, Boston had picked up just 0.01 of an inch of rain from the coastal storm, which was the only rain all month in Beantown. Friday brought only 0.05 of an inch of rain as the storm's precipitation started to spin closer to the coast. Saturday finally brought more a substantial soaking, as 0.91 of an inch of rain fell to start the weekend.
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The same coastal storm will bring some rain to parts of southeastern New England through the end of the weekend. However, the dry wedge of air that has been so prominent over the past week to 10 days over the interior Northeast will remain, at least for the time being.
The atmospheric roadblock that has allowed the dry wedge to linger will begin to break down into the new week.
As this occurs, weather systems will begin to move in a more routine west-to-east motion from the Midwest to the Northeast. However, the effects of the lingering wedge of dry air may whittle down or continue to prevent rainfall in some parts of the Midwest and the Northeast. Rain will be a possibility on multiple days but not a certainty for most of the week.
A storm that produced a couple of rounds of severe weather over the Plains last week will push eastward across the Midwest through the weekend.
As leftover moisture attacks the dry air, spotty showers and some thunderstorm activity can occur from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Some of that rain can even reach into the central Appalachians this weekend, and a few thunderstorms can even turn severe, briefly interrupting outdoor activities.
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As a second and stronger storm moves out of the Rockies and onto the Plains through this weekend, a large shield of rain will develop. As this system moves eastward into the new week, it will encounter somewhat more moisture and should have more success in bringing pockets of steady rain to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, which will eventually reach into the Northeast.
So, while some rain is likely to chip away at the dry wedge of air for the rest of the month, a number of locations may continue to be unusually dry, and it could end up being among the driest Septembers on record.
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Soaking rain will reach parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley states this weekend. From Sunday to Monday, Chicago and St. Louis could pick up over an inch of rain.
However, where little or no rain falls on the already dry landscape and parched ground farther to the east, trees that have been stressed may put on their autumn display early, and leaf drop is likely to be accelerated.
The extended dry period is good news for the fall harvest, where crops have not been stressed. The dry soil allows agricultural interests to get into the fields. The same dry pattern has also allowed excellent outdoor working conditions, and some construction projects may trend ahead of schedule.
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