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The Race to 112: Malaysia’s Power Struggle by the Numbers

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The collapse of Malaysia’s ruling coalition less than two years after taking office has triggered a race between rival camps to secure the 112 parliamentary seats needed to form a new government.

After almost a week of political turmoil, interim Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad appears to have lost the support of what remains of the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition, which earlier this week had pledged to back him. Mahathir had quit his own party as it broke away from the coalition on Monday, seeming to signal he was sticking with the broader alliance. He has now left the coalition formally and rejoined his renegade party.

On Wednesday, the Pakatan Harapan alliance -- minus Mahathir’s party -- agreed to propose Anwar Ibrahim as prime minister to the king instead. It said Mahathir refused to attend a meeting to revive the coalition. Mahathir said in a televised speech later that day he’ll return to power if enough lawmakers support him.

On Thursday, a possible third contender briefly emerged, with a local newspaper reporting that the country’s main Islamic party, along with the biggest opposition party, were backing Muhyiddin Yassin, president of Mahathir’s renegade party. The Islamic party subsequently denied the report, saying it will stand together with opposition coalition Barisan Nasional to call for an election.

In May 2018 elections, Mahathir and Anwar had joined hands to topple the Barisan Nasional alliance that had ruled Malaysia for six decades. That alliance, now in opposition, has been working with the Islamic party.

Right now, the path to power appears easier for Anwar and what remains of Pakatan Harapan, assuming it doesn’t suffer more defections.

Things are more difficult, but not impossible, for Mahathir and anyone else attempting to cobble together a rival coalition. Mahathir can pull together parties, or factions within the parties, from both the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional sides.

To cement their lead, any bloc would likely need to secure the support of regional parties on the two Malaysian states in Borneo.

Here are the key numbers as the potential different blocs scramble to form a government:

PAKATAN HARAPAN (The government that collapsed on Monday is now backing Anwar Ibrahim for prime minister)

Assuming no more defections, the current Pakatan Harapan coalition would need to convince 20 other lawmakers to join, align or stay with it to retain their majority in government.

Seats held:

(After defections of Mahathir’s Malaysian United Indigenous Party or Bersatu, and anti-Anwar faction in People’s Justice Party)

Total number of parliament seats: 92Total number of seats needed to form government: 20

Current component parties:

People’s Justice Party: 39National Trust Party: 11Democratic Action Party: 42TOTAL: 92

Possible sources of additional seats:

Sarawak State Parties Coalition known as GPS (Previously allied with opposition Barisan Nasional coalition. Pledged support for Mahathir earlier this week. Now says it will go with who the king says has won enough support to lead): 19Sabah Heritage Party (Not part of coalition but was previously aligned with Pakatan Harapan. Pledged support to Mahathir as prime minister earlier this week, but not the Pakatan coalition explicitly. Has not indicated whether it supports Anwar): 9United Progressive People of Kinabalu Organisation (Not part of coalition but was previously aligned with Pakatan Harapan): 1Members of renegade Bersatu party or Justice party defectors who might choose to return to the fold: unknownMembers of the opposition Barisan Nasional coalition whom Anwar may convince to cross over: unknownTOTAL: 29 or more

Other independent parties:

United Sabah People: 1United Sabah Party: 1State Reform Party: 1Independent member of parliament: 1TOTAL: 4

BARISAN NASIONAL (The opposition after losing power in 2018)

Assuming no defections, the Barisan Nasional opposition would need to secure 70 more lawmakers to join, align or stay with it to form government.

Seats held:

Total number of parliament seats: 42Total number of seats needed to form government: 70

Current component parties:

United Malays National Organisation: 39Malaysian Chinese Association: 2Malaysian Indian Congress: 1TOTAL: 42

Most likely sources of additional seats:

Malaysian Islamic Party (allied with Barisan): 18TOTAL: 18

Possible sources of additional seats:

Malaysian United Indigenous Party (Bersatu, Mahathir’s party which left the Pakatan Harapan coalition Monday): 26Defectors from People’s Justice Party (Ousted from ruling coalition but pledged support for Mahathir earlier this week): 11Sabah Heritage Party (Was previously aligned with Pakatan Harapan. Pledged support to Mahathir as prime minister earlier this week, but not the Pakatan coalition explicitly. Has not indicated whether it supports Anwar): 9Sarawak state parties coalition GPS (previously allied with opposition Barisan Nasional coalition. Pledged support for Mahathir earlier this week. Now says it will go with who the king says has won enough support to lead): 19TOTAL: 65

Other independent parties:

United Sabah People: 1United Sabah Party: 1State Reform Party: 1Independent member of parliament: 1TOTAL: 4

NEW COALITION (Led by Mahathir, with potential parties from both sides)

Assuming no defections, Mahathir would need to secure 75 more lawmakers to join, align or stay with him to form government.

Seats held:

Total number of parliament seats (parties or factions who have pledged support to Mahathir): 37Total number of seats needed to form government: 75

Current seats/parties in hand:

Malaysian United Indigenous Party (Bersatu, Mahathir’s party which left the Pakatan Harapan coalition Monday): 26Defectors from People’s Justice Party (Ousted from ruling coalition and pledged support for Mahathir earlier this week): 11TOTAL: 37

Possible sources of additional seats:

(Depending on whether Mahathir convinces them to join him in a new coalition, and whether the entire party joins him, or just factions of the parties.)

Two parties from the Barisan Nasional side have said they will support Mahathir only if he drops the Democratic Action Party, a multicultural party seen to be representing ethnic-Chinese that has now aligned itself with Anwar instead of Mahathir

United Malays National Organisation: 39Malaysian Islamic Party (allied with Barisan): 18TOTAL: 57

Other parties Mahathir can woo:

Sabah Heritage Party (Was previously aligned with Pakatan Harapan. Pledged support to Mahathir as prime minister earlier this week, but not the Pakatan coalition explicitly. Has not indicated whether it supports Anwar): 9Sarawak state parties coalition GPS (previously allied with opposition Barisan Nasional coalition. Pledged support for Mahathir earlier this week. Now says it will go with who the king says has won enough support to lead): 19TOTAL: 28

Other independent parties:

United Sabah People: 1United Sabah Party: 1State Reform Party: 1Independent member of parliament: 1TOTAL: 4

(Recasts the three scenarios in play now after latest developments)

To contact the reporters on this story: Stephanie Phang in Singapore at sphang@bloomberg.net;Liau Y-Sing in Kuala Lumpur at yliau@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniel Ten Kate at dtenkate@bloomberg.net, Yudith Ho

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