Pro-Putin Newcomer Delivers Shock to Romania’s Establishment
(Bloomberg) -- A little-known pro-Russian candidate won the first round of Romania’s presidential election after an unprecedented backlash against establishment candidates eliminated Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, the presumed frontrunner, from the contest.
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The result is one of the biggest shakeups in Romanian politics since the collapse of Nicolae Ceausescu’s communist regime 35 years ago and adds fuel to Europe’s lurch to the political right. Next Sunday, the European Union member state holds parliamentary elections, which now threaten to break the hold of Romania’s traditional parties.
Calin Georgescu, a fringe politician who ran as an independent and promoted himself on social media platform TikTok, secured 23% of the votes, according to a preliminary tally. Opposition leader Elena Lasconi edged ahead of Ciolacu in a late surge, erasing the premier’s initial lead, to take 19.2%. The top two will face a runoff on Dec. 8.
“It’s clearly a vote against the system with a split between the pro-western views and the anti-western ones that rings the alarm bell about the level of dissatisfaction in the population,” said Cristian Pirvulescu, an analyst and professor at the Romanian University of Political Studies in Bucharest.
The biggest blow came to the Black Sea nation’s two largest parties, Ciolacu’s Social Democrats and the Liberal Party. In response, Ciolacu resigned from the leadership of the party but said he will stay on as premier until after the parliamentary election on Dec. 1 to ensure a smooth transition of power. He also said he won’t challenge the results of the presidential elections and congratulated Lasconi.
It’s the first time the long-dominant Social Democrats haven’t fielded a presidential candidate in a final round since 1990. The Liberal candidate, Nicolae Ciuca, secured less than 10% and is also expected to step aside.
‘Disaster’
The result “spells disaster” for parliamentary election, above all for the ruling parties, likely complicating post-vote coalition building, Pirvulescu said.
Although unexpected, the outcome underscores growing unease about support for Ukraine and a broader rebuke against a perceived political elite, falling more in line with Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the US this month and the rise of right-wing forces in Italy, France and Slovakia over the past year.
Georgescu, 62, a former ally of the ultranationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians party, has questioned military support for Ukraine. He’s called for an end to the war and cast doubt on the benefits of Romania’s NATO membership.
In a 2020 interview, Georgescu called Vladimir Putin one of the world’s few true leaders, saying that the Russian president loves his country regardless of the means he uses.
His victory caught markets off-guard. Romania’s dollar bonds were the worst performers among emerging-market peers on the day. Yields on domestic debt also jumped and the BET stock index fell and headed for the lowest close since April.
Romania’s two main parties, once rivals, have led the country in a grand coalition over the past three years. Although the unity government has yielded a measure of calm in Romanian politics, the parties are now likely to confront amplified discontent over their handling of the country’s finances and economic woes in the parliamentary contest. Polls so far have shown the Social Democrats in the lead.
Romania, like other countries bordering Ukraine, has faced intense hybrid attacks from Russia, from cyberattacks to drones breaching its air space to test military responses.
“Tonight the Romanian people shouted ‘peace’ — and they were very loud,” Georgescu told supporters Sunday evening.
Romania’s president holds a largely ceremonial office, but is the commander-in-chief of the military and represents the country at NATO and EU summits. The head of state also nominates the prime minister in consultation with political parties.
(Updates with details about party leadership resignation in fifth paragraph)
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